This afternoon at 4 PM, Bitcoin traders will face one of the largest option settlements this year: contracts with a total notional value of up to $15 billion will expire. Despite a slight easing of tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin's implied volatility has dropped to a nearly two-year low, indicating that the market sentiment remains cautious.
VX: TZ7971
Although the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has slightly cooled down, the overall market remains in a wait-and-see mode with no clear direction. However, the activity in the Bitcoin derivatives market continues to rise.
Bitcoin option trading volume in the second quarter is about 25% higher than the average of the past year, reflecting a significant increase in institutional participation; meanwhile, Ethereum option trading activity remains relatively stable with no significant fluctuations.
According to Deribit data, the total outstanding Bitcoin options contracts on the platform are currently around $40 billion, with about $15 billion expiring today; the "Max Pain Point" is at $102,000, which would minimize profits for buyers and maximize losses, or minimize losses for sellers and maximize profits; the Put-to-call Ratio is 0.73, indicating that traders are slightly pessimistic.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin's trading price is $107,257, with a price movement roughly flat over the past 24 hours, slightly down 0.5%.
In terms of perpetual contract open positions, it remains at a low level; Bitcoin's implied volatility and skew are both at low levels, suggesting that investors do not expect significant market volatility on Friday.
According to Deribit data, Bitcoin's implied volatility has fallen below 38, reaching a new low since October 2023. In comparison, Ethereum's implied volatility over the past three months has been hovering between 60 and 80.
Although this settlement scale is impressive, the actual volatility is expected to be limited, but attention should be paid to potential changes during US stock trading hours. More importantly, the market trend after the settlement will be the key to determining the medium-term trend.
If the price breaks through the consolidation range, coupled with continued strong inflows of Bitcoin spot ETF funds, a new wave of bullish momentum may be expected over the weekend. Once Bitcoin breaks through the $110,000 mark, the subsequent market will see a new round of fund allocation, further determining the medium-term trend.
If the market's put option trading volume increases and the strike prices are generally lower than the current price, it reflects traders' expectations of a correction and may signal an increased short-term pullback risk; conversely, if the spot market is active and out-of-the-money (OTM) call options gain popularity, it indicates that market confidence in Bitcoin reaching new highs is gradually building.
Today's fear and greed index is 65, slightly decreased but still in a greedy state.
Yesterday's data was quite good, with US stocks nearly reaching a new high, but Bitcoin did not keep up, with momentum slightly slowing. Although Powell still denies a July rate cut, he has at least begun to soften his stance. On the other hand, most listed companies are no longer satisfied with just holding Bitcoin; ETH, BNB, SOL, TRX, HYPE, and others are gradually seeing institutional entry. The current cycle has not yet seen the "explosive price surge" typical of previous bull markets. If Bitcoin and Ethereum enter their main upward trends in the near future, Altcoins may also welcome a large-scale recovery.
Listed companies are beginning to adjust their digital asset portfolios. New York-based Bitcoin mining company Bit Digital (BTBT) announced that it will sell all its mining machines and BTC holdings in favor of Ethereum. As of March 31, the company held 417.6 BTC and 24,434 ETH. This move has raised concerns that other miners might sell BTC as mining income drops to a two-month low.
In the short term, the risk of breaking below the $100,000 mark still exists. However, macro factors such as central bank monetary easing expectations continue to support Bitcoin prices in the medium to long term.
