1. Week 25 Market Overview
Market Overview
This week, the cryptocurrency market as a whole showed a volatile downward trend. Bitcoin continued its downward trend last week until it broke 100,377 on the 22nd and then pulled up and reversed in a V-shaped manner. After hitting a high and falling back on the 25th, it fell into a small sideways consolidation between longs and shorts. Affected by this, Altcoin generally followed the rise until they began to fall after the 24th. The market sentiment index rose from 37% last week to 50%, and the overall sentiment was still in the short-long range. The market entered a stage of large-scale sideways fluctuations between 10,000 points.
2. Trading momentum and capital flow
2.1 Stablecoin Market Dynamics
As of June 19, the total market value of stablecoins continued to grow amid market fluctuations, indicating that funds are still flowing in. Among them, the difference in growth rates between USDT and USDC clearly reflects the dynamics of capital in different regions around the world.
1. USDT: The market value reached 156.72 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 0.63% from 155.745 billion U.S. dollars last week. The weekly increase exceeded 1 billion U.S. dollars for the sixth consecutive week, continuing to show a strong upward momentum.
2. USDC: The market value is 61.77 billion US dollars, up 0.59% from 61.406 billion US dollars last week, ending the downward trend last week and starting to rise.
It is worth noting that USDT is mainly circulated in the Asian market, while USDC is more used in the U.S. market. Judging from the current capital flows, Asian capital is still continuing to flow in and drive the market, while U.S. capital is also continuing to flow in and drive the market, showing that the two markets are clearly consistent at the current stage.
2.2 Market trading momentum weakened this week
- The overall BTC trading volume has dropped significantly, especially the USD trading volume has dropped sharply.
- The market tends to be bullish this week, but is close to the pressure level and waiting for a change signal.
2.3 On-chain pricing model: short-term holder costs
1. Model Introduction: The Short-term Holder Cost Basis (STH Cost Basis) is a key on-chain pricing model that represents the average holding cost of recent market participants. Historically, this price level is a key watershed that distinguishes bull and bear trends in the market. To provide a richer statistical dimension, we can apply standard deviation above and below the STH cost basis to construct dynamic support and resistance ranges. These price ranges (Bands) quantify the price consensus range of the short-term holder group, and their outer boundaries are usually key areas that mark trend exhaustion or potential breakthroughs.
The current key price levels are as follows
- 111-Day Moving Average (111DMA): ~$95.3k (short-term price support/resistance zone)
- 200-day moving average (200DMA): around $96.4k (medium-term support)
- 365-day moving average (365DMA): about $83.4k (long-term structural support)
- 200-week moving average (200WMA): about $49.2k (historical bull-bear boundary)
2.4 Interpretation of recent market dynamics: consolidation and accumulation of momentum, waiting for breakthrough
Since mid-May, the price has fluctuated repeatedly between 100k and 110k, with the outer resistance focusing on the previous high range of about 111.3k. The current high slope is downward, but the moving average slope is slightly flatter than the previous period. The current daily highs are gradually decreasing and the lows are also gradually decreasing, which can be understood as a flag pattern or a high-point consolidation posture. If the 200-day moving average support can be maintained and it rises again to break through 111k, a new round of bulls will begin; if it falls below the 111-day moving average, it is possible to enter a bear market.
2.5 Short-term holders’ MVRV indicator view
In the following analysis, we fully quote the articles and opinions of the well-known Twitter KOL Murphy. If you are interested in this kind of in-depth market observation, you can follow his social account to obtain first-hand information.
Case 1: Selling pressure has been significantly reduced; most new investors are still confident in the future market, and are not only unwilling to sell when the price is close to or slightly below the cost, but also bring more purchasing power, thus driving a strong rebound in the market. When STH-MVRV=1 is marked in the figure, it means that the BTC price just touches the STH-RPC and becomes a support level, which is such a situation.
Case 2: Market sentiment is pessimistic and lacks confidence in the future; when close to the cost, the market is more inclined to sell to protect the principal or minimize losses, causing the BTC price to fall directly below the cost line; the two marked points in the figure are such cases. After that, even if the price rebounds, it will encounter resistance near STH-MVRV=1, that is, STH-RPC becomes a resistance level.
If situation 1 is a hallmark of the continuation of the bull market, then the occurrence of situation 2 means that the market is about to turn into a "phased bear market", and once entering it, it is usually difficult to get out of it quickly.
Judging from the data, the probability of situation 1 occurring from March 2014 to date is greater than that of situation 2. The two most recent occurrences, May 6 and June 22, were both situation 1. The essence behind this is what was mentioned above: "short-term new investors are confident in the future market."
However, as the cost of obtaining BTC in the short term becomes higher and higher, we see that STH-MVRV (green waveform) is always in a divergence state, that is, the BTC price is higher while STH-MVRV is lower. The continuation of this divergence pattern makes STH-MVRV lower and lower, which may cause STH-MVRV to eventually fall below 1, that is, situation 2 occurs.
Therefore, if we can see that STH-MVRV can exceed the previous high point when the price rebounds, then the above "risk warning" can be lifted.
For example, when BTC rebounded to $110,000 on June 9, the high point of STH-MVRV was 1.13; the next time we see this value above 1.13, a breakout of the divergence means a reversal of the general trend, and the BTC price can go up another level (currently 1.09).
For example, on July 29, 2024, when BTC rebounded to $69,000, the high point of STH-MVRV was 1.06; on October 28, 2024, when BTC rebounded to $69,000 again, the high point of STH-MVRV was 1.08; the divergence was broken, and then BTC went out of a large-scale trend from 68,000 to 108,000.
Data source: Murphy
3. On-chain data and indicators
3.1 Market Sentiment Index Analysis
The market sentiment index rose from 52% last week to 66%. BTC rose 3.37% this week, ETH fell 1.83% this week, and TOTAL3 fell 0.6% this week. Altcoin as a whole is still in the short range and has entered the panic level.
3.2 Ointime Price Deviation Top Limit Price Estimation
In the following analysis, we fully quote the articles and opinions of Mr. Berg, a well-known Twitter KOL. If you are interested in this kind of in-depth market observation, you can follow his social media account to obtain first-hand information.
I am often asked: "How high can this wave go? What is the top price?" Frankly speaking, I don't have a crystal ball, so I can't predict things. I can only act according to the data. Although we can't predict, we can still find a "ceiling" through the data. In addition to giving a psychological expectation, it can also assist our trading decisions. Old friends may know that I have proposed a model designed by myself: Cointime Price Deviation. The main purpose of this model is to monitor the top risk and estimate the top limit position.
For detailed content and principle analysis, please refer to the following two articles:
-Detailed description of the model principle
-The top article of 2/7 this year
In short, compared to most of the escape indicators on the market, this model adopts the high-precision BTC valuation model Cointime Price, and also takes into account the decreasing volatility of BTC year by year, thereby drawing relatively accurate conclusions.
At present, the top range given by the model is about 124K ~ 127K. If the error tolerance is slightly increased, it can be roughly caught within 130K. However, it should be noted that the model does not have a predictive effect, and it does not mean that the future peak will definitely be in this range. The data is dynamically changing, and the longer the time, the higher the estimated value may be; here is an explanation for item 2: As time goes by, the Cointime Price (the denominator of the formula) will be higher, so it is more difficult to touch the threshold, which means that BTC needs to rise more.
3.3 Observation of US capital sentiment curve
Update on the US capital sentiment curve: Are the Americans done with the money?
Two weeks later, this set of data seems to have some signals again, so today I will update you again to see if history is rhyming... In case new friends don’t know, here is a brief review: the black line = BTC daily closing price, the purple line = the sum of the gains and losses in the past 30 days during the US working hours.
For a detailed introduction and explanation of the principle, please refer to the following post: Principle Explanation of US Capital Sentiment Chart
Since US funds are still the dominant force in the crypto market, it is particularly important to monitor their behavior. As shown in the above picture, you can compare it with the picture in the quotation below. You can find that after my reminder on 6/10, the price simultaneously reached a stage top, and the purple line went all the way south, proving that US funds have been the main market crasher in the past two weeks. Similarly, the rise since 75K is also the same, and the price is almost completely synchronized with the purple line.
Today, there are two noteworthy signals: the purple line dropped sharply, but the price did not drop very much, indicating that European and Asian funds are taking over, and the purple line rose sharply today. Careful friends, if we compare the current situation with the pattern at the beginning of this year, we can see that both the price and the purple line are very similar: "The price rose sharply, the purple line fell first, and the US capital sentiment rose for the second time." Moreover, not only at the beginning of this year, similar situations also appeared at the two tops in 2021:
Old readers all know that simply following the old ways is not my style. Let me explain to you the principle behind this: American capital has the greatest influence. If they withdraw, Eurasian funds will not be able to support the market. The second wave of pull-up: take advantage of the Eurasian funds' willingness to take over and use the momentum to push up and break through the new high to do Stop Hunt. Let me briefly explain the role of Stop Hunt here: imagine that when the price rises to near a new high and someone is willing to take over, the shipper can spend a little cost to push up to a new high, "borrowing" the liquidity when breaking through the new high to reduce wear and tear and complete the shipment smoothly.
If the next step can really follow this script and create another ATH, then the six major risk signals that I have been thinking about before may be triggered at the same time, and an excellent trading window will appear...
Data source: Mr. Berg
4. Macroeconomic influence and event-driven
- On June 23, the EU Council unanimously passed the "Omnibus I" proposal to simplify the scope of the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) and reduce the compliance burden on small and medium-sized enterprises. On the day of the news, the pan-European STOXX 600 index rose slightly by 0.4%, led by the energy and industrial sectors. consilium.europa.eu
- On June 23, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Market Regulation Department publicly solicited public comments on the MIAX Futures Exchange's position on exemption measures and extended the exemption letter for non-U.S. swap dealers. This move provides greater compliance certainty for futures and swap market participants. CME futures daily average trading volume increased by about 3% month-on-month. cftc.gov
- On June 24-25, the People's Bank of China and six ministries and commissions issued the "Guidance on Financial Support to Promote Consumption", encouraging banks to innovate consumer credit products and support consumer chain enterprises to raise funds through listing and other channels to boost domestic demand. On that day, China's domestic demand sector rose 2%, and the RMB central parity rate rebounded slightly to around 7.10.
- On June 25, the Bank of Japan released a summary of its June 16-17 policy meeting, showing differences among policymakers on the current 0.5% interest rate level: some advocated maintaining easing, while others worried that inflation was overheating and needed to raise interest rates in advance. After the signal was released, the yen appreciated by 0.5% against the dollar, and the Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.7%.
- On June 30, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) will issue guidelines on preventing market abuse in accordance with the requirements of the Crypto-Asset Market Regulation (MiCA). At that time, digital asset service providers will face stricter compliance requirements for trading behavior, and the demand for market compliance technology suppliers is expected to increase by 20%.
- Temporary tariff suspension period is coming
The suspension period (90 days) of the previous round of tariffs on its allies and China will expire on July 9. The market is worried that the United States may adjust its tariff policy again, triggering uncertainty in trade policy.
5. Leverage risk range and liquidation hotspots
5.1 Introduction to the Liquidation Map
The liquidation map is like a mine map of the market, clearly marking the price points at which a large number of leveraged orders will be forced to close.
The brighter the area on the chart, the larger the accumulated liquidation amount. These areas act like "magnets" and attract prices to move toward them to obtain liquidity. Therefore, traders can use it to quickly determine the potential target price of the market and assess whether the risk of falling "killing longs" or rising "squeezing shorts" is higher. So below we will use multiple data sources to give an overview of market expectations for this week.
5.2 Exchange Clearing Chart
The height of the liquidation column for each exchange (Binance, OKX, Bybit) shows the concentration at different price levels.
🔺The liquidation columns on the left (below) are obviously more dense
- Liquidation columns are concentrated at $102,000 ~ $105,000
- This area is where leveraged long positions are concentrated, and the long positions of Bybit (light blue) and OKX (orange) are particularly prominent.
- The high prominence of the bar chart means that once it falls below $104,000, the risk of liquidation of long orders below will increase sharply, which may easily trigger a chain reaction.
🔺 The liquidation of short orders on the right (above) is relatively scattered
- Liquidation columns are distributed between $110,000 and $115,000
- Although the accumulated short position liquidation intensity (green curve) has risen rapidly, the column height is sporadic, indicating that the short position layout is relatively dispersed
- It shows that the pressure of short positions to burst is limited during the rise, and there is not enough squeeze momentum
✅ Summary:
- The current price of $107,416 is at the edge of the long order liquidation zone, and the long order pressure is high near $104,000 below
- If it falls back to the $103,000-$104,000 range, it will trigger more long liquidations and the market may accelerate downwards.
- After breaking through $110,000, short-term buying may be driven by short stops, but substantial positive news is needed to continue the upward trend
5.3 Key Observations of Liquidation Heat Map
1. The obvious long order liquidation concentration area is between $99,000 and $101,200
The brightest and most horizontally extended yellow-green area is concentrated here, which mainly appeared during the sharp drop on June 22, indicating that a large number of high-leverage long orders were forced to close in this area. If the price falls below $99k again, there may be aftershocks below, and the support is relatively fragile.
2. Strong short position liquidation zone at $106,500 ~ $108,500
Dense light yellow bands appeared several times in this area, mostly during the rapid rebound period on June 23 and 24, indicating that this area is full of high-leverage short orders. For prices to rise further, more short orders in this area need to be digested or substantial buying combined with fundamental benefits needs to be relied on.
3. The current price is about $107,800, which is in the upper middle of the short position liquidation area
The current K-line in the figure is consolidating in the medium to high brightness area, which means that some short orders have been cleared, but there are still dense short orders to be cleared above. If it fails to break through $108.5k, it may retreat in the short term to test the support of $106k~$105k below.
✅ Summarize
- This week, the price fell first and then rose. The downward risk of long positions has been cleared in the range of $99k to $101.2k;
- Short-term resistance is concentrated at $106.5k~$108.5k. Breaking through this range is the key to the next rise;
- Currently, the market may remain volatile due to the short position liquidation zone. We suggest paying attention to whether it can effectively stabilize at $108.5k. Otherwise, the short-term trend will still be mainly based on retracement.
5.4 Summary
| index | state | Comment |
| Current price position | About $107,800 | Located in the upper half of the short position liquidation zone of $106.5k~$108.5k, short-term shock consolidation, need to pay attention to whether it can break through $108.5k |
| Liquidation pressure from below | Medium to low | The long liquidation zone ($99k～$101.2k) has been partially triggered, and the remaining liquidation energy below is limited. If it falls below $106k, it will be slightly triggered. |
| Upper liquidation pressure | high | The short position liquidation zone is densely distributed between $106.5k and $108.5k, and requires substantial buying or fundamental benefits to effectively break through |
| Leverage Features | Two-way high leverage | Both long and short orders are concentrated on the liquidation high ground. If the price fluctuates violently, it is easy to cause liquidity stampede and expand the volatility. |
| Bias | Oscillating | There is liquidation pressure at both ends of the short-term structure. If there is no breakthrough signal, the price may fluctuate in the range of $106k to $108.5k. |
6. Weekly report conclusion
This week, the market fell first and then rebounded. After breaking 100,377, BTC quickly reversed in a V-shape and fluctuated in the 100k-110k range. The game between the long and short sides was fierce, and no clear trend has been formed yet.
1. Market Bias
| index | Status/Performance | illustrate |
| Funding momentum | Stablecoin market capitalization both increased | USDT increased by 0.63% to 156.72 billion USD in a single week; USDC rebounded by 0.59% to 61.77 billion USD, indicating that funds from various regions entered the market simultaneously and market liquidity is still |
| Technical aspects | In the middle of the range, there are risks of breakthrough and breakout. | BTC fluctuates repeatedly in the 100k-110k range, with the key resistance at 111.3k, and the high point slope moves downward; if the 100k support below is lost, it will test 95.3k (111DMA) and the cost band |
| Market sentiment | From panic to cautious optimism | Sentiment index rebounded from 37% to 50%; short-term buying increased, but the long-short tug-of-war remained, and the implied volatility showed that the demand for downside protection had not receded. |
| Leverage Risk | Focus on both ends of the interval | Long order liquidation is concentrated at 99k-101.2k; short order liquidation is concentrated at 106.5k-108.5k; short-term traders are advised to arrange around the range boundaries and strictly control risks |
2. Suitable transaction types at this stage
| Transaction Type | Entry conditions | Risk control and position increase and decrease strategies |
| Short-term swing trading | Long when the price is close to $106k support; short when the price is close to $108.5k resistance | Quick stop loss when it falls below $106k or breaks above $108.5k |
| Mid-term breakout trading | If the volume breaks through $108.5k, go long; if it falls below $106k, go short | After the upward breakout, you can add more long orders; after the downward breakout, you can add more short orders, and pay attention to the liquidation acceleration effect |
| Long-term wave holding | The low of the range is $99k–$101.2k. Build positions in batches when the price drops; add positions after confirming that the upper edge of the range or the long-term moving average has been broken. | After the price stabilizes on the upper edge or the moving average, gradually reduce the position; use 111DMA (≈$95.3k) as a long-term stop loss reference |
3. Short, medium and long-term operation suggestions
| Time period | Operational Strategy | Risk control points |
| Short-term (1–3 days) | Buy low and sell high in the range, long near $106k and short near $108.5k; if there is a unilateral breakthrough, immediately switch to the breakthrough trading mode | Strictly set the stop loss and take profit at $106k / $108.5k; quickly switch the stop loss or take profit mode after the breakthrough |
| Mid-term (1–2 weeks) | After the price effectively breaks through and stabilizes in the range, follow the trend: go long when it breaks up and go short when it breaks down; combine the stablecoin fund flow and on-chain liquidity events to short | Confirm the breakthrough strength and fundamentals, increase or decrease positions in batches; avoid excessive one-time increase |
| Long term (>1 month) | When it falls below key support (such as 111DMA or cost band), reduce positions or wait and see; if it returns to the upward channel and the fundamentals are still strong, you can invest on dips and hold mainstream currencies | Use the long-term moving average (111DMA≈$95.3k) as a stop loss reference, control positions with fixed investments, and guard against trend reversal risks |
4. Focus and reminders
| Focus | illustrate |
| $106k–$104k long order liquidation pool below | There is still margin, if it breaks, it will easily trigger a chain liquidation |
| Above $108.5k–$110k short orders are suppressed | Suppression is concentrated, and a breakthrough requires significant volume or fundamental benefits |
| Stablecoin (USDT/USDC) market value | Both rebounded, indicating that capital liquidity is still |
| On-chain short-term holder cost model and STH-MVRV indicator | Divergence or breakthrough are both mid-term turning signals and need to be continuously monitored. |
| Upcoming Macro Events | ESMA MiCA guidance, US tariff policy, etc. may increase short-term volatility |
Learn more → Followin | Contact us → @followin_io_zh
