The Week On-chain W25

Executive Summary

• Market Fluctuating with News: As geopolitical tensions escalated, Bitcoin once dropped to $99,000, but quickly rebounded to $106,000 with reports of tension easing. Currently, it continues to move within the $100,000-$110,000 range that has been maintained since early May.
• $93,000-$100,000 Acting as a Strong Support Level: According to the CBD heatmap, buying pressure concentrated in this price range during Q1 2025, forming a thick volume layer. As long as the price is maintained above this support interval, the medium-term upward trend can be considered valid.
• Slowdown in Profit-Taking and Activity Indicators: Profit-taking has gradually decreased after the third major upward phase of the cycle, and on-chain transfer volume has dropped by approximately 32%. Spot trading volume is also showing low levels at around $7.7 billion, indicating an overall reduction in investor participation.
• Futures Market Active but Confidence Weakening: While futures trading remains active, open interest has decreased by 7%, and liquidation volumes have significantly increased for both long and short positions. Funding rates and 3-month futures basis continue to decline, suggesting reduced expectations for leveraged investment.
• Momentum Slowing, Downside Risk Limited: The market remains in an observational state, and for prices to rise again, demand, trading activity, and investment sentiment will need to show clear improvement.

Price Fluctuating with News

[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the technical cryptocurrency terminology and preserving the original structure.]

Unlike the all-time high rallies in Q2 and Q4 of 2024, the recent attempt to break $111,000 was not accompanied by a surge in spot trading volume. Currently, spot trading volume is around $7.7 billion, significantly lower than the peak of this bull market. This discrepancy suggests that speculative sentiment is weakening, and the market is maintaining a wait-and-see attitude.

Meanwhile, futures market volume has been declining for several weeks, reflecting overall market fatigue. However, unlike the spot market, futures market participants were actively trading until the attempt to break $111,000. This suggests that leverage-centered positions played a larger role in recent price movements.

However, the aggressive position expansion in the futures market has also been gradually weakening since the all-time high in Q1 2025. Both funding rates (annualized) and the three-month futures-spot price difference (rolling basis) continue to decline, indicating that while trading volume is maintained, the enthusiasm for entering long positions is diminishing. This suggests that market speculation is becoming increasingly cautious and may also indicate an expansion of cash & carry arbitrage positions or an increase in short positions.

Conclusion and Implications: Bitcoin is currently maintaining a range-bound movement between $100,000 and $110,000, with recent price movements unfolding amid significant macroeconomic news volatility. The CBD heatmap shows a strong support line in the $93,000-$100,000 range, which has been an important supply zone since the peak formation in Q1 2025. However, signs of market fatigue are gradually emerging. Profit-taking scale is decreasing, on-chain activity is slowing down, and spot trading volume did not significantly increase during the recent all-time high breakthrough attempt. While futures market participation was active, declining funding rates and rolling basis suggest that speculative sentiment is becoming increasingly cautious. As long as the price is maintained above the key support lines, the upward trend will continue. However, if demand and investment sentiment do not recover, the short-term possibility of breaking the all-time high may be limited. [Disclaimer and additional information sections remain the same as in the original text]