Experts have analyzed that the halving cycle, considered a key metric for Bitcoin investment, is no longer meaningful. This is because the market has entered a mature phase since 2023, and with the introduction of spot ETFs leading to large-scale capital inflows, a different pattern is expected to unfold. Instead, the advice is to focus on capturing the flow of 'smart money' by analyzing indicators such as the selling point and return rate of long-term holders.
James Check, founder of CheckOnChain, emphasized at the 'Bitcoin Seoul 2025' event, "The traditional halving cycle is now insufficient to explain the market" and "The real important thing is to capture the moment when investor behavior changes".
Check is an analyst who founded the data analysis platform CheckOnChain and analyzes cryptocurrency flows and investor sentiment through on-chain data. He gave a lecture on the topic 'The End of the Halving Cycle: Predicting Bitcoin's Peak and Future with On-Chain Data'.
Bitcoin halving refers to the period when Bitcoin mining rewards are halved. It occurs every 4 years, with the 4th halving taking place last year. Bitcoin is designed so that the reward is halved after 210,000 blocks are mined. Typically, Bitcoin would see a bull market as scarcity is highlighted due to supply reduction around the halving period.
Check diagnosed that the Bitcoin market has entered a mature phase since 2023, creating a different environment. He said, "The market failed to break through $1 trillion twice in 2021, but in 2024, it maintained the $1 trillion level for 8 months" and "It then immediately broke through to $2 trillion, proving its value". He added, "The 2017 cycle started at $30 billion, a 100-fold difference" and analyzed that "Until 2017 was individual-centered market expansion, until 2022 was the growth of leverage and derivatives, and from 2023 onwards, it became a mature and cyclical market".
He also saw the introduction of ETFs as driving market maturity. Check stated, "ETFs are not completely new, but Bitcoin ETFs are the most successful ETFs to date and are causing enormous capital inflows" and "Comparing the trends of Bitcoin and gold ETFs, Bitcoin ETFs also have the possibility of continuous long-term inflows".
Check advised that to successfully invest in the maturing Bitcoin market, one should pay attention to the actions of large investors or long-term investors. He said, "Instead of the market itself, track the people making decisions in the market and see what they are doing" and "Through this, you can find overheated zones and price levels where people want to sell".
He introduced on-chain data and mentioned key indicators investors should focus on. Check explained, "If long-term holders who bought and held long ago start selling for 14 consecutive days, this tends to coincide with past peaks" and "The movement of 'dumb money' entering with high leverage in the derivatives market is mainly observed near peaks". He added, "When investors record an average 2-3 times return, selling incentives increase and the market overheats" and "At this point, smart money sells, while FOMO-driven dumb money enters late at the peak".
He also advised, "Bitcoin may sometimes fall, but will ultimately rise" and "Whether Bitcoin reaches $75,000 or hits $170,000, the important thing is to decide now how you will act then". He further added, "Preparation, not prediction, is the essence of investment".
- Shin Jung-seop, reporter
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