XRP has rebounded by over 40% from its April 7th low to June 4th, rising to $2.50, but remains 37% lower than its January peak of $3.40. This situation raises concerns about limited potential for further increases.
On-chain indicators strongly suggest the possibility of XRP price adjustment. Currently, XRP's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator has entered the 'Belief-Denial' zone. This indicates that most holders are in a profit state but lack confidence to withstand market volatility, which has historically been associated with pullbacks near peak levels. Particularly, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of NUPL is used as a benchmark for identifying turning points and currently supports the possibility of a reversal near the peak.
Institutional investor fund outflows also reinforce the weak XRP outlook. In the past month, XRP-based Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) have experienced a net outflow of $40.7 million, interpreted as institutional investors lowering their expectations for the asset.
From a technical analysis perspective, a 'falling wedge' pattern is notable. While typically known as a strong rebound signal, current analysis suggests a potential 22-38% additional decline risk if key resistance levels are not broken, implying XRP could retreat to $1.95-$1.70 in the short term.
Meanwhile, XRP is maintaining some advantage in its lawsuit with the SEC, and with Trump promising potential financial regulation relaxation, policy expectations might reignite an upward trend. However, comprehensive analysis of on-chain data, institutional fund flows, and technical indicators suggests a short-term correction appears difficult to avoid.
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