Only 2.936 million BTC left on exchanges! This marks a new low for the current cycle, signaling that more BTC are being moved to cold storage rather than being deposited on exchanges to sell. The last time exchange balances dropped this low was back on December 17, 2022, after the FTX meltdown, when trust in CEXs collapsed and we saw a wave of withdrawals. (Figure 1) What really impacts short-term price action is Binance’s BTC balance. Since the start of 2024, there have been 4 sharp upticks, each lining up with periods of BTC price weakness. (Figure 2) Binance’s BTC balance is closely tied to sell pressure on the market. Whenever the number goes up, it usually puts pressure on the price in the short term. Lately, though, balances have been dropping, which sets up the conditions for a rebound. (Figure 3) What’s interesting is that whales (holding $1M and $10M+) are moving in sync—mainly withdrawing BTC to self-custody, while retail (under $100K) is actually depositing onto exchanges. This lines up with recent on-chain data showing whales are accumulating. (Figure 4) If you compare this to previous cycles, it’s similar to July-August 2021, when whales were all withdrawing. In Jan-Mar 2022, whale behavior was split: $1M+ wallets were withdrawing, but $10M+ wallets were depositing. With both on-chain and exchange sell pressure dropping, and demand decline slowing down, the stage is set for a further rebound. Personally, I think this bounce off $80K isn’t done yet. Whether the rally can keep going will depend on investor sentiment and risk appetite going forward.