Murphy

Murphy

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17年老韭菜；研究链上数据和宏观情绪相结合，构建自己的交易思维。保持谨慎乐观！| 近3亿用户的共同选择就在币安：https://t.co/5pQWuny9gU | #OKX web3入口一个就够 https://t.co/YwY7pIgKzB

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Signal Clone Analysis

I often use OKX Dual Investment as a tool to execute my planned DCA (dollar-cost averaging) strategy. Its biggest advantage is flexibility in terms of timing. Plus, when comparing similar strike prices and time frames, its yield is also pretty competitive. For example: If I plan to start building a long-term BTC position in the $56k-$50k range, I can leverage OKX Dual Investment’s “Buy Low BTC” strategy. I just pick the nearest settlement date, select the strike prices I’m targeting—like $56,000, $55,000, $54,000, etc.—and input the amount I want to buy (basically splitting up my orders). Then, by 4pm tomorrow, if BTC is below any of the selected strike prices, the system will automatically buy BTC for me at those prices (with the yield settled in BTC). If BTC is above the strike price, I get my USDT back plus interest. Put simply: If I don’t buy, I earn interest; if I do buy, it fits my original plan perfectly. Usually, I avoid picking a settlement date that’s too far out—I want to stay flexible and avoid situations where the price hits my target before settlement, or the date arrives but the price has already moved up, which could mess up my entry timing. Of course, you can also play around with different combos based on your own plan, allocate your funds, and balance time and yield to find the strategy that suits you best.

Epic! A massive amount of unprofitable trading has occurred! On February 5th, BTC's realized losses, adjusted for physical values, reached a record high of $3.2 billion. After seeing this, everything before is just a drop in the ocean. Neither the Luna collapse, the FTX bankruptcy, nor the black swan events of 312/519 have triggered such a large-scale loss and exodus. There was a similar incident on November 21, 2025, but Coinbase made adjustments afterward to the wallet data. This time, however, it seems like genuine panic... It seems that "world records" are meant to be broken. It's been many years since I've seen BTC fall so much without any black swan events. I believe history will remember this day! (Some people believe that the price should be measured in currency, but this is a misconception. The price of BTC is dynamic, and only by measuring its value in US dollars can the true measure of market panic and pressure be accurately assessed.) twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

At this point, it’s clear that my recent attempt to catch the bottom and play the bounce hasn’t worked out—just goes to show how tough it is to go against the trend in a down market. But after spending so much time in crypto, it’s hard to resist taking a long position. In theory, you buy when BRS hits 100 and sell when it drops back to 0—that’s a textbook swing trade. I’ve backtested historical BRS signals, and during bull-bear transitions, the success rate for catching rebounds is around 70%. Of course, there are uncertainties. For example (I’ve adjusted BTC price to the blue line for clarity): (Figure 1) Like at point 2 in Figure 1, BRS just briefly touched 100 before dropping, while BTC was consolidating. This scenario usually ends in failure. Because when BRS hits 100 again, BTC starts dumping. If you buy at the first touch and wait for BRS to drop to 0 to sell, you’re in the red. What we want to see is “BRS staying at 100 for a while”—letting the panic fully play out. Then, as BRS heads toward zero, BTC typically rebounds. But here’s another issue: While BRS is stuck at 100, BTC tends to chop up and down. So when BRS first touches 100, it’s not always the absolute bottom. Like points 1/3/4 in Figure 1, there’s always some drawdown. I’ve backtested the last 10 years. On average, drawdowns are around -13%. The worst case was -25% (and that happened only once). (Figure 2) Back to the present, BRS has already held at 100 for a while—not a “sharp peak.” So statistically, there’s a 70% chance this bounce works. We noted that when BRS hit 100 this time, BTC was at $75,992. Based on historical backtests, a drawdown of around -13%, or $65,000-$66,000, is within the normal range. So here’s the real question: If you bought at $75K and BTC drops below the $70K psychological level, should you keep buying to average down, or cut losses and wait for a new setup? Sorry, I can’t give financial advice. Everyone’s capital, risk tolerance, time, and position management are different. But remember: your strategy shouldn’t keep you up at night, stressed and worried! As long as you survive the bear, you’ll have plenty of chances to thrive… twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Long-term holders are getting increasingly sensitive to price action! If we "carve the boat" (刻舟求剑, i.e., stick to the plan), here’s when we hit the same level in the last 3 cycles: 2014.9.18, 2018.6.23, 2022.5.7, and next up: 2026.2.4. Around each of these dates, major events pushed BTC into a deep bear phase: 🚩 Sep 18, 2014: The fallout from Mt. Gox’s collapse kept spreading. After September, the Chinese government announced a crackdown on BTC and crypto. 🚩 Jun 23, 2018: China fully banned crypto exchanges and ICOs; Korean top exchange Bithumb got hacked. 🚩 May 7, 2022: Luna ecosystem imploded, FTX went bankrupt. As the saying goes: “Tops are a process, bottoms are an event.” — Maybe where we are now, we’re just one black swan away from the true bottom. That final shakeout, where LTHs emotionally capitulate at peak sensitivity, might be the endgame for this downtrend! What will happen in 2026?...... (Good news: If you carve the boat, even if you buy now and HODL strong till the next cycle, you’re 99% likely to not lose money.) twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Slow grind down, but not a collapse — Reconstructing BTC's cost basis under panic through URPD On Feb 4, BTC dropped from the Jan 15 high of $97,000 to $73,000. The speed and depth of this dump instantly crushed the optimism that thought $80k would hold. Let’s be real, if you say there’s no panic, you’re lying. So, it’s worth reviewing what happened to BTC’s cost basis during this period and what key signals are hidden beneath the surface. To make things easier, I pulled the full URPD data and charted it by $10,000 intervals. This lets us clearly track how coins moved and gauge the current market sentiment and behavior. (See Chart 1) From Jan 15 to Feb 4, the number of profitable coins below the price dropped by 67,008 BTC (9.7% of the total decrease), while the underwater coins above the price dropped by 611,324 BTC (88% of the total decrease). What does this mean? Basically, long-term holders with unrealized gains are selling less and less as prices fall. Either they think there’s no point in taking profit here, or they just DGAF about price and hold long-term. Bottom line: the lower we go, the less these guys sell. The main selling pressure comes from bagholders up top. Over 600k BTC got flushed out in just 20 days — that’s how intense the panic-driven capitulation has been. But on the flip side, we’re seeing massive bids in the $80k-$90k and $70k-$80k zones. Especially the latter, with net buys of 450,413 BTC — almost double the previous range. This shows there’s big money lurking, stepping in hard with real conviction — “You dump, I buy. The lower it goes, the more I scoop.” That’s what makes this cycle fundamentally different from previous ones. Even if the 4-year cycle theory hasn’t been disproven, bulls are defending every drop. 100k, 90k, 80k, 70k… the cost basis is shifting lower in steps, not falling off a cliff. Lots of people are calling for this cycle’s bear bottom at $50k or even $30k. I’m not so sure. What I do believe is: once bears squeeze bulls to the absolute limit and supply dries up, a full-on bull counterattack is inevitable. --------------------------------------------- I’ll leave you with a question to chew on: On the chart, the total coin count was 16,184,047 on Jan 15, 2026, and 16,198,235 on Feb 4 — a difference of 14,188 BTC. Where did it come from? What does it mean? Drop your thoughts in the comments and let’s discuss! --------------------------------------------- This is for learning and discussion only — NOT investment advice! twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Woke up this morning to a bunch of DMs asking if I bought the dip. Alright, I’ll be real with you guys… Walk the talk, let fate decide 🤣 Just trying to play a bounce here, based on three factors: 1. BRS is holding at 100—the longer it stays, the bigger the chance for a rebound; 2. The gap in the URPD double-anchor structure is slowly getting filled; 3. Current price is way off from STH-RP. We do what we can, the rest is up to the market. If I’m wrong, I’ll cut losses below 70k. As always, if you’ve got a low risk appetite, be careful trying to catch this bottom! twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Glassnode uses the cumsum formula to calculate the weighted average BTC price at the points when ETFs experience net inflows, creating a highly "behavioral" institutional cost anchor. Currently, BlackRock's average cost is $83,696; Fidelity's average cost is $73,752. BTC has now fallen below BlackRock's average cost, psychologically impacting Fidelity investors. No wonder BlackRock investors were the main bears in November and December, while Fidelity became the primary seller in January. If BlackRock is dominated by institutional investors, while Fidelity has more retail investors, and considering MSTR's current average cost of $76,040... We may not share the good times, but we must share the bad; now, let's all be family!

Panic selling in full swing! Yesterday, BTC’s on-chain Entity-Adjusted Realized Loss (EARL)—which filters out internal transfers between addresses of the same entity—hit a massive $1.3 billion. While that’s still much less than the $1.8 billion EARL seen on Nov 21, 2025, when BTC crashed to $85K, it’s still a rare event in the past decade for daily EARL to break above $1 billion. (Pic 1) Only in a bear market do we see this much weak-handed capitulation. But here’s the silver lining: panic selling can actually give BTC some much-needed breathing room during a downtrend. With selling pressure easing, BTC has a shot at finding short-term stability, which naturally fuels expectations for a relief bounce. On top of that, BTC’s supply concentration has dropped from a peak of 16% on Jan 28 to just 8.7% yesterday. This means the risk of sharp price swings triggered by overly concentrated holdings is decreasing. (Pic 2) Of course, there are plenty of factors that can amplify volatility—like leveraged liquidations, options short gamma, or poor market liquidity—and supply concentration is just one of them. (Just highlighting this specific factor here, not saying others don’t matter.) Less volatility and flushed-out weak hands both set the stage for BTC to stabilize and possibly bounce in the short term. But whether that bounce is strong or weak is another story—it all comes down to demand and momentum. ----------------------------------------------- For learning and discussion only. Not financial advice! twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

BRS=100! This is a signal of short-term panic-driven risk release. It suggests that BTC is likely to see a rebound after an oversold drop in the $75k–$78k range. Coincidentally, this also happens to be the midpoint of the “dual anchor structure” on the URPD chart, which, based on past experience, tends to provide support. Note: This indicator does NOT guarantee 100% accuracy. There were failed cases during the 2022 bear market (see Chart 2 for reference). Make sure to manage your positions and funds according to your own risk tolerance. This is just my personal sharing, not financial advice or a guarantee of profits! twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

The behavior trend of the whale cohort has shifted from early accumulation and hesitation to now halting, or even distributing their holdings. This means the main demand side of the market is exiting at a visibly fast pace (see Figure 1). When whales started accumulating, it didn’t immediately reflect in the price, but it did absorb excess supply and helped stabilize and boost market sentiment. However, their current shift might have an even deeper impact on the market. (Figure 1) Similarly, we can observe the same situation through the AD-CDD indicator. On Jan 25, the AD-CDD was 0.2 (see reference), but it has now dropped to 0.13 (Figure 2). This is almost at the “low demand zone” seen in previous bear markets (red shaded area). Demand continues to shrink during this period, with no sign of stabilization or rebound. (Figure 2) So from a macro trend perspective, there’s still no data support for a short-term BTC reversal. If you’re risk-averse, be cautious about trying to catch the bottom. But no reversal doesn’t mean no bounce. If your risk tolerance is decent and you have steady cash flow, you could consider catching a rebound if there’s an oversold signal—just remember to set a stop-loss. I’ll keep updating on rebound expectations and signals, so make sure to turn on notifications. ------------------------------------------------------- This is for educational exchange only, not financial advice! twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

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