Seeing several folks asking, "Where's the Investor Confidence Index?"—so here's an update. The algorithm behind this indicator uses a pretty heavy smoothing mechanism, so it's slow-moving and more of a macro trend tool. That's why I don't write about it that often, but since you guys are interested, let's check in. Currently, the index is still in the red zone below the zero axis, and it's even lower than the last two times. This means BTC's recent drop has hit market confidence harder than any other point in this cycle. More investors now believe this isn't just a mid-bull market correction, but possibly the start of a cyclical shift from bull to bear. (Chart 1) Personally, whether that's true or not, the most "no-brainer" strategy for regular investors is dollar-cost averaging, something like the AHR999 approach. For example, when the first red signal appeared, BTC was at $105,000. If you bought your first batch then and added every $10K drop, your average entry would be around $95,000. If you laddered your orders in a positive pyramid, your cost could be closer to $90,000. Even without any structural hedging (like options for volatility), your BTC spot drawdown would be pretty limited, and you'd outperform 90% of the market in terms of PnL. Just keep DCA-ing until the index climbs back above zero, and your P&L curve will look solid. The real challenge is strict money management and discipline. Sounds easy, but most people can't stick with it. The "confidence index" can stay away from zero for a long time—like in 2024, it lasted two and a half months, and this time it might be even longer (we’re only one month in so far). Right now, the index looks like it's starting to turn, but that doesn’t mean BTC has bottomed yet. It just means things are moving in a better direction. Still, we need to stay flexible and leave enough room for error, so we don’t get forced out of the game too early. ---------------------------------------------- Sponsored by @Bitget｜ Bitget VIP: lower fees, bigger perks