Citi Raises Bitcoin Price Forecast to $135,000 by End of 2025

Citi Raises Bitcoin Price Forecast to $135,000 by the End of 2025, Optimistic Scenario Could Reach $199,000

The leading Wall Street investment bank - Citi - has just released a new analysis report, providing a positive forecast for Bitcoin (BTC) price trends by the end of 2025. Accordingly, Citi sets a basic target for BTC at $135,000, while in an optimistic scenario, the world's largest cryptocurrency could peak at $199,000.

Three Key Factors Driving Bitcoin's Price Increase

Citi's forecast is built on a valuation model adjusted by an analysis team including Alex Saunders and Nathaniel Rupert. The report identifies three core factors driving Bitcoin's long-term growth trend:

1. User Growth Rate: Citi uses a linear network model, showing that Bitcoin users could grow by 20% annually. According to this model, the user growth factor alone could drive Bitcoin's price to around $75,000.

2. Global Macroeconomic Conditions: Although factors like a weak stock market and declining gold prices could reduce BTC's valuation by about $3,200, this remains a notable variable in Citi's overall model.

3. Cash Flow into Spot Bitcoin ETFs: This is the most impactful factor in the model. Citi estimates that if net capital flow reaches $15 billion into Bitcoin ETFs, this will add approximately $63,000 to BTC's value. Thereby, the basic price target is raised to $135,000.

In a more cautious scenario, if the stock market continues to be under pressure and ETF inflows slow down, Bitcoin's price may only reach around $64,000 by the end of 2025.

ETF Capital Becomes the Main Driver of the Bitcoin Market

Citi emphasizes that spot ETFs currently play a dominant role in Bitcoin price fluctuations. Estimates suggest that every $1 billion in net ETF inflows can cause BTC price to increase by an average of 3.6%. YTD, total cash flow into Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded $19 billion, with the most recent month recording $5.5 billion.

"We believe this capital flow trend will continue to increase strongly in the second half of 2025," the Citi report states.

Bitcoin Increasingly Integrates into the Traditional Financial System

Beyond the ETF factor, Citi also points out that Bitcoin is gradually being integrated into the global financial system. BTC's appearance in major financial indices like S&P 500 or Russell, along with increasingly strong participation from traditional financial institutions, is clear evidence of Bitcoin's changing role in the modern financial landscape.

With the development of financial infrastructure and increasingly clear support from major institutions, Citi believes Bitcoin is gradually confirming its position as a strategic asset in long-term investment portfolios of institutional investors.