Mars Finance News, on July 4th, according to official website data, the probability of "Musk creating a new party before the end of this year" on Polymarket is 42%; on Kalshi, the probability of "Musk creating a new party this year" is currently 35%. Musk previously stated on July 1st that if the "Beautiful Law" passes, he would establish a new party in the United States the next day. Trump's "Beautiful Law" passed in the House of Representatives this morning and will be signed at 5 AM on Saturday. Additionally, Musk initiated a poll on social media on June 6th: "Is it time to create a new party in the United States that truly represents the middle 80% of the population?" The voting results showed that 5,630,775 users participated, with 80.4% supporting the proposal.
Polymarket predicts that the probability of "Musk creating a new political party before the end of this year" is 42%.
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