Author: Unipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy')
Compiled by: TechFlow
I’ve had quite a few people ask me recently about the Pump.fun TGE (Token Generation Event) and its $PUMP token.
Since this is one of the most anticipated TGE events in recent memory, and many are starting to compare it to BonkFun – which has been getting a lot of attention since it surpassed Pump.fun – I felt it was necessary to sort out my thoughts.
Here is what I know so far about the $PUMP token:
They have reportedly raised $1 billion at a $4 billion valuation.
Prediction markets and OTC markets value the token at $7 billion to $8 billion after the TGE, with some trading houses even suggesting it could be as high as $10 billion.
So what does this mean for $BONK, the BonkFun ecosystem, and the wider trenches (grassroots users) and memecoin market?
I’ve made some comments before on X that it’s reasonable for the $PUMP token to easily reach a valuation of $4 billion.
I also said it could easily be in the top 10-15 crypto projects .
These comments are based on a comparison of Pump.fun's historical and projected revenues with the valuations of other crypto projects.
However, I did not expect that BonkFun would surpass PumpFun so quickly and strongly.
Having said that, here are my updated views:
I don't think Pump.fun has completely lost ground, but I do think BonkFun is likely to continue to be an industry leader for the foreseeable future.
Here are my reasons:
BonkFun’s positioning of “supporting creators/supporting users/supporting the Solana ecosystem” is its huge advantage.
The strong support culture within the BONK ecosystem has gradually permeated into the tokens launched through BonkFun. This culture is difficult for other projects to quickly replicate.
Pump.fun had a lot of momentum as a tokenless protocol, especially in anticipation of the TGE and potential airdrops. However, in the days and weeks leading up to the TGE, it was strongly surpassed by BonkFun. It is hard to imagine that it will be able to sustainably recover its previous market share after the TGE.
While all launchpads suffer from bot issues, I believe a fair portion of Pump.fun's activity is from active power users and bots that are actively trading in anticipation of the airdrop in order to reap the rewards. After all, Pump.fun was once the most profitable protocol in crypto, and this is to be expected. But I think this activity will slow down or even stop after the TGE, as the incentives are over.
The above factors make BonkFun’s growth even more impressive! Its growth has been completely organic and driven by tight integration with the Solana ecosystem, with no promises or expectations of any tokens or incentives — because the $BONK token existed before BonkFun launched, and it has always been clear that platform fees would be used to buy back and burn BONK.
It’s worth noting that much of BonkFun’s growth has come from its rapid adoption around the world, especially cultural connections with important communities. For example, the widespread acceptance of BonkFun in the Chinese market has made it a top launchpad in the region, attracting a large number of users to Solana and launching a record number of tokens on it, far exceeding other blockchains. This is one of BonkFun’s core strengths and an area of continued growth for it - an important area that many people may still not fully realize.
Furthermore, this does not take into account some strategic moves that BonkFun may make in the future.
Overall, I think BonkFun is strategically well-positioned to remain a leader in the startup platform space for a long time , provided everything goes well!
I admit that Pump.fun may make some interesting announcements before its TGE to try to regain market share... but even then, I think the impact will be short-lived.
PUMP’s TGE is a favorable catalyst for the development of $BONK, BonkFun, and the BonkFun ecosystem.
Many have been promoting the upcoming $PUMP TGE as an event that will drain trench funds, top memecoins, and liquidity from the BonkFun ecosystem.
If the TGE had happened 1-2 weeks ago, this argument might have made some sense, but I don't think this will be the case in the future.
BonkFun's strong win over PumpFun so close to the TGE will dampen the market's enthusiasm for $PUMP and avoid a situation where liquidity is drained from memecoins and trench funds. Given the recent market context, it is obviously unreasonable to sell off high-conviction assets in favor of $PUMP.
It is becoming increasingly clear that the real $PUMP TGE transaction is actually $BONK and the BonkFun ecosystem…
Although the token economic model of $PUMP is still very opaque and we know very little about its specific contents, we do know the following:
50% of BonkFun’s transaction fees are used to purchase and destroy $BONK tokens.
In total, 58% of BonkFun fees are used in some form to purchase $BONK tokens.
I can’t predict what the final token economic model of $PUMP will look like, but I struggle to see how it can be more competitive than BonkFun’s current model.
Especially considering that Pump.fun has remained an extremely profitable business (earning nearly $1 billion in the past year and a half!) while raising $1 billion and reaching a $4 billion valuation.
Therefore, I think the real $PUMP TGE transaction is $BONK and BonkFun Ecosystem :
If $PUMP raised funding at a $4 billion valuation and was valued by a third party at up to $10 billion, how much should $BONK be worth given $BONK’s recent market dominance and its potential for continued future dominance?
More importantly, BonkFun is just one of many ecological products that are increasing the purchase and destruction pressure for $BONK.
At its current market cap of $1.8 billion, it is clearly severely undervalued .
If I were an objective investor, I would think that in the current environment, buying $BONK with a market cap of $1.8 billion would provide a higher return on investment than buying $PUMP with a valuation of $4 billion or more.
I also think the BonkFun ecosystem will attract more buying and quickly reprice towards a higher valuation given the current situation.
Furthermore, this does not take into account the possibility that Pump.fun could further lose momentum and market share after the TGE is completed, being even more significantly surpassed by BonkFun.
BonkFun’s continued dominance is a huge boon to the memecoin market and the trench ecosystem.
One of the main reasons why many industry insiders firmly support BonkFun and oppose Pumpfun is that Pump.fun is considered too "predatory".
This reputation for being “predatory” stems primarily from the fact that they have sold, and continue to sell, large amounts of $SOL (hundreds of millions of dollars!).
The success of memecoins and the level of activity on their chains are strongly correlated to the price movements of blockchain native tokens, such as $SOL on the Solana chain.
If the price of $SOL continues to rise or remains relatively stable, this will have a positive impact on the trench ecosystem and on-chain activity as more people will be interested in participating in the memecoin "casino".
This means that the prices of major memecoins will be more stable, and newly launched low-market-cap memecoins will have higher bottom support, while also inspiring the creation of more memecoins and narratives.
In this regard, BonkFun fits perfectly into this trend:
15% of the fees generated by BonkFun are staked in the form of $SOL in the BONKSol validator. This not only reduces the selling pressure on $SOL, but also contributes to the security of the Solana network by staking a large number of tokens as a validator.
58% of the fees generated by BonkFun are used to purchase $BONK. People familiar with the meme coin market know that "dogs move in packs", that is, the continued rise of a strong meme coin will drive other large-cap meme coins and stimulate market speculation, promoting the launch of more new meme coins and new narratives.
So in this case, BonkFun reduced the selling pressure on $SOL, while pushing $BONK to incredible valuations through more aggressive buying and burning operations.
The more frequently this phenomenon occurs, the more active the trench ecology will be and the more speculative the market will be, thus forming a flywheel effect or cycle.
You can call it a "bonk wheel" or a "bonk cycle", the name doesn't matter, but the core logic is obvious!
I’m not sure how to put it better, but there is no doubt that BonkFun’s emergence as the clear, final, and decisive winner is the best way forward for the trench ecosystem and the memecoin market — even if you don’t hold any tokens in the BonkFun ecosystem.
Final Thoughts…
BonkFun's latest success ensures one thing: the highly anticipated $PUMP TGE , which many people believed could lead to a loss of funds in the memecoin market and the trench ecosystem, has turned into a potential positive catalyst . A large amount of funds will flow into the $BONK and BonkFun ecosystem before and after the TGE, which will further promote the prosperity of the trench ecosystem.
