Last week (June 24 - July 1), BTC price oscillated at a high level between $105,000 and $107,000, with ETH spot ETF net inflows of $255 million, driving price surge. Influenced by positive market information, long-term bullish expectations for BTC and gold increased, with BTC price fluctuating within the $105,000 to $107,000 range during the week, reaching a maximum increase of 9.21%, and currently stabilizing around $106,751. ETH price soared, repeatedly breaking through the key resistance level of $2,500 in short periods, reaching a high of $2,525, currently retracing to around $2,446, with the largest volatility of 15.4% during the week (Binance spot, July 2, 14:20).
The three major U.S. stock indices rose for three consecutive days, with the S&P 500 breaking through 6,200 points for the first time. The U.S. stock market was disrupted by Trump's tariff policies in the first half of 2025, with ongoing market fluctuations gradually recovering. By the last trading day of the first half of the year, the Dow Jones increased by 3.64%, the S&P 500 rose 5.5%, and the Nasdaq rose 5.48%.
Market Interpretation
ETH Capital Inflow Resonates with Ecosystem Development, Strengthening Price Upward Momentum
ETH price increased by 3.5% within 24 hours on June 30. Institutional demand remains strong, with CoinShares reporting net inflows of $255 million for ETH spot ETF last week, accumulating nearly $2.9 billion this year. Simultaneously, 35 million ETH are staked on-chain, accounting for 28% of total supply, with continuing liquidity supply reduction.
Robinhood announced developing an L2 network based on Arbitrum, planning to support ETH staking and tokenized stock functions, demonstrating confidence in ETH expansion prospects. ETH co-founder Buterin recently proposed a zero-knowledge proof digital identity solution, supporting Web3 privacy and compliance. The EthCC conference in Cannes attracted over 6,400 developers, focusing on protocol innovation and application implementation.
Fiscal Divergence Intensifies, BTC and Gold May Benefit from Safe-Haven Demand
Recently, Trump reiterated that "economic growth will offset the deficit," sparking market attention during his latest tax reform bill debate. BTC subsequently rose, increasing 0.54% within 24 hours on June 30. With continuing loose fiscal policies and deficit expectations, market attractiveness of traditional fixed-income assets like U.S. bonds decreases, with funds preferring hard assets like BTC and gold to hedge against inflation and fiscal risks.
As large-scale U.S. tax cuts and fiscal stimulus policy controversies escalate, with continuous deficit expansion and rising currency depreciation and inflation expectations, gold and BTC as anti-inflation and safe-haven assets are expected to maintain increasing future attractiveness. Recent BTC price range volatility has increased, with obvious capital inflow signs reflecting investors' sensitive response to macroeconomic policy risks.
U.S. Senate Advances "Big and Beautiful" Bill, Bringing New Changes to Crypto Taxation and Compliance
On July 1, the U.S. Senate advanced the "Big and Beautiful" bill with a 51:49 vote, covering tax cuts and fiscal expenditure measures, sparking debates about deficit and national debt levels. The bill proposes a tax exemption for small crypto transactions (below $300 per transaction, $5,000 annually), which, if passed, would simplify crypto users' tax processes and reduce daily compliance costs. Coordinating with the GENIUS Act, U.S. crypto industry regulation and tax environment are accelerating transformation, with institutions expecting stablecoins and on-chain payments to benefit further, strengthening industry compliance trends.
XRP Daily Trading Volume Drops 54%, Market Sentiment Turns Cautious
Ripple announced abandoning cross-appeal with SEC, upgrading XRPL to 2.5.0 and introducing multiple new functions. Robinhood's XRP micro-futures launch did not boost trading volume. On June 30, XRP daily trading volume plummeted 54% to $1.38 billion, with price slightly rising to $2.19. The sharp volume decline reflects investor caution, with subsequent innovation and compliance progress becoming key observation points.
Circle's Listing Experiences Extreme Fluctuations, Core Value and Valuation Continuously Attract Attention
Circle (CRCL) saw market capitalization surge to $63 billion after listing, with stock price rising over 700%, significantly higher than USDC's actual circulation scale, recently correcting over 15%. Over 95% of Circle's revenue depends on USDC reserve interest, with future performance highly sensitive to interest rates and total USDC supply. USDC supply exceeded $61 billion, with fund efficiency far surpassing industry average, and the ability to realize high growth expectations still depends on market share expansion and new compliance opportunities.
Hong Kong Clarifies Token ETF Stamp Duty Exemption, Supporting Digital Asset Market Development
Hong Kong's Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau recently released the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0", proposing to promote tokenization of multiple asset classes including precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and renewable energy. The policy clearly states that existing stamp duty exemptions applicable to traditional ETFs will also apply to tokenized ETFs, eliminating market doubts and facilitating future secondary market trading on licensed digital asset platforms. This is viewed as another substantive positive for Hong Kong's acceleration of digital asset and tokenized financial product ecosystem development.
Matrixdock, a professional RWA tokenization platform under Matrixport, holds a Hong Kong Customs Class A financial services license, enabling compliant gold and precious metal trading. It has launched XAUm gold token, which can be 1:1 exchanged for LBMA-certified 99% pure gold bars. Matrixdok plans to successively launch tokenized products for silver, platinum, and palladium, further enriching its precious metal asset token ecosystem.
Market Highlights
U.S. June Non-Farm Data to be Released Early, Holiday Impacts Market Liquidity
Affected by Independence Day holiday, the U.S. June non-farm employment report will be released early on July 3 (Wednesday) at 20:30 (Beijing time). U.S. stocks and CME stock index futures will close early that day, with U.S. stocks closed on July 4 and related futures contracts also ending trading early. Investors should pay attention to data release timing and liquidity changes, and be wary of risks from market volatility and liquidity reduction during the holiday.
Mastercard Joins Global Dollar Network, Expanding Stablecoin Collaboration Landscape
Mastercard announced joining the stablecoin alliance Global Dollar Network (GDN) initiated by Paxos, with members including Robinhood, Kraken, and other notable platforms. GDN supports members jointly minting USDG stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar and sharing interest income from reserve assets like U.S. Treasury bonds. Mastercard also plans to support multiple stablecoins like PayPal's PYUSD and Fiserv's FIUSD, integrating them into its Mastercard Move cross-border remittance network, accelerating digital currency application in payment and transfer domains.
Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation to Take Effect, Enhancing Financial Efficiency and Risk Prevention
Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation will take effect on August 1, 2025, requiring all companies issuing or providing fiat-pegged stablecoins in Hong Kong to obtain licenses, maintain 100% high-liquidity asset reserves, ensure 1:1 redemption and real-time redemption, and strengthen anti-money laundering and transparency supervision. Hong Kong seeks to balance innovation and risk prevention, steadily upgrading to become an international digital financial hub.
Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offer, or purchase offer invitation to residents of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, United States, Singapore, or other regions where such offers or offer invitations might be legally prohibited. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
