Can Bitcoin's historical 9.1% increase in July be repeated? Focus on the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill before the US stock market closes | HashKey trading time

1. Market Observation

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is at a complex crossroads triggered by trade tariffs. Chairman Powell candidly stated that the Fed could have already cut rates if not for the Trump administration's tariff plans potentially undermining inflation control efforts. Although he has reserved all possibilities for the July rate decision, his remarks suggest increasing policy flexibility, with the threshold for rate cuts potentially lowering if employment data weakens. Meanwhile, the US government's fiscal policy has added new variables. The highly anticipated "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill narrowly passed the Senate with a 51-50 vote, with the House set to debate and vote on the Senate version on Wednesday, and Trump hoping to sign it into law before July 4th Independence Day. The bill has far-reaching implications, planning to reduce taxes, decrease social safety net spending, while increasing military and immigration enforcement budgets, which is expected to add up to $3.3 trillion to the US national debt over the next decade. On the trade front, President Trump maintains a tough stance, clearly stating he will not postpone the July 9th tariff deadline and specifically targeting Japan, intensifying global market tension and uncertainty. Notably, due to the Independence Day holiday, US stocks will close early at 1 AM Beijing time on July 4th and remain closed the entire day, entering a brief silent period before the policy storm.

Yesterday marked Hong Kong's 28th return anniversary. Against this backdrop, HashKey Exchange, Hong Kong's first licensed virtual asset exchange, officially launched its offline experience booth at the West Kowloon High-Speed Rail Station, providing convenient service channels and experiences for the public. HashKey Chief Analyst Jeffrey Ding stated that Web3's development is not just a technological iteration but a reshaping of efficiency and trust paradigms. 2025 is viewed as a crucial node for Hong Kong to restart with digital sovereignty and institutional innovation. Against the backdrop of accelerating on-chain efficiency improvement and digital asset institutionalization, Hong Kong is considered poised to play a leading role in the new global financial order.

Bitcoin dropped to $105,000 this morning. Bitfinex analysts noted that Bitcoin's upward momentum has shown initial signs of weakening, potentially entering a consolidation phase or local top. Simultaneously, spot trading volume has decreased, with increased profit-taking behavior. The short-term holder's cost basis of $98,700 serves as a critical support. Historical data shows Bitcoin typically performs weakly in the third quarter, with an average return of 6%, and price volatility is expected to further decrease, likely continuing range-bound movement. Matrixport statistics reveal that in the past decade, Bitcoin has risen in seven Julys, with an average gain of 9.1%, supporting market expectations of challenging the $116,000 level. The more pessimistic analyst CryptoCapo warns that the true selloff has not yet begun, predicting Bitcoin could drop below $100,000 to the $92,000-$93,000 range, potentially reaching a bottom of $60,000-$70,000. He also indicates that if this trend materializes, Altcoins might face an additional 50%-80% decline risk.

On-chain market remains relatively cold, with no popular quick trades. $USELESS on Bonk and $STARTUP on Believe both hit historical price highs. However, the recent stock tokenization trend initiated by Robinhood and xStocks has brought some highlights. Robinhood's stock price hit a historical high of $99.18 yesterday, simultaneously reviving the Solana-based meme coin stockcoin, with its market value surging from $14,000 to $4.4 million in three days, rising 1,400% within 24 hours.

This article is supported by HashKey, HashKey Exchange is the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted crypto asset fiat gateway in Asia. Committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in compliance, fund safety, and platform protection.