1. Market Observation
Keywords: BASE, BSC, ETH, BTC
The US May non-farm employment data released on Friday was slightly higher than expected, alleviating market concerns about economic recession. According to CME data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 99.9%, and the probability of maintaining unchanged in July is 83.4%, despite Trump urging a 100 basis point rate cut via social media. "The May CPI report to be published this Wednesday will become the market's focus, potentially showing whether the inflation downward trend has stalled. Bank of America's chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett recently warned that the US government is combating $5 trillion in revenue with $7 trillion in spending, creating a $2 trillion deficit gap, causing the dollar to significantly depreciate even under 5% Treasury yields, falling nearly 9% this year. The total US national debt has exceeded $37 trillion, and if the 'Beautiful Big' bill passes, it will further push up debt by $1.5 trillion. Hartnett pointed out that the two houses may raise the debt ceiling by $4-5 trillion to support until the 2028 election. He expects a key policy turning point between June 15 and July 4: trade moving towards peace, global defense spending expected to peak, and US tax reduction policy locked in. Key time nodes to watch include: the Swiss Central Bank has a 21% probability of reintroducing negative interest rates on June 19; Trump may sign the 'Beautiful Big Bill' on July 4; and CCTV News reported that the US side promises to suspend 24% tariffs for 90 days until July 8.
In terms of industry regulation, local governments in China are beginning to liquidate seized crypto assets through compliant Hong Kong exchanges. Beijing Public Security Bureau has entrusted approximately 2,000 Bitcoins (valued over $220 million) to the Beijing Equity Exchange for clearance, to be sold through HashKey Exchange in Hong Kong, making Hong Kong a compliant window for China to handle crypto assets. Jeffrey Ding, Chief Analyst at HashKey Group, believes this move strengthens Hong Kong's position as an Asian crypto financial center, but also needs to balance regulation and vitality. He suggests optimizing VASP review processes, reducing compliance costs for small and medium projects, and strengthening investor education to prevent market overheating.
The weekend market was relatively calm, with Bitcoin mainly oscillating, closing last week at $105,734, successfully standing above the 10-day simple moving average. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital stated that Bitcoin has now closed above $104,400 for four consecutive weeks, a position that was previously a resistance level and has now become a support level. Trader Cas Abbe predicts a "magnet-like" volatility by observing order book liquidity. He says the current BTC liquidation clusters show an upward signal. If BTC price rises 10%, it will liquidate $15.11 billion in short positions; if it falls 10%, it will liquidate $9.58 billion in long positions. He expects BTC to experience significant volatility this week, potentially pushing the price to break through $109,000-$110,000. Although Matrixport acknowledges recent price trend weakening, its trend model still maintains a bullish stance, only turning bearish if it breaks below $96,719.
In the Altcoin market, on-chain profit-making has become increasingly difficult, especially on the Solana chain, with many traders shifting to Base or BSC chains. The DeFAI + InfoFi project TAGGER (TAG) in the BSC ecosystem rose 166% in 24 hours, the US Eagle EGL1 has risen for 5 consecutive days, becoming a emerging strong MEME coin on the BSC chain, ranking first in the USD1 trading race with a 66.68% 24-hour increase and a market cap exceeding $72 million. Additionally, $Janitor, $CXZI (an AI + on-chain data analysis project), and alphabet concept coins $Z and $E have become popular Meme coins in USD1 trading. The Base ecosystem also has several outstanding projects, such as AI token $LAY with nearly a 3x 24-hour increase and a market cap breaking $35 million, TORUS up 88.1% in 24 hours, MAMO with a market cap close to $90 million and a 16% 24-hour increase; the algorithmic innovation project (OPoW) $TIG doubled in 24 hours with a market cap exceeding $76 million.
(The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach)Macro Outlook This Week: CPI Data Tests the Fed's Patience, Gold to Receive Directional Signal
DWF Labs Buys 7 Tokens Worth $6.43 Million in One Month, Overall Floating Loss of 13%
Binance Alpha Now Lists AB (AB), Token Airdrop Available with at Least 225 Binance Alpha Points
Trend Research Withdraws 4,000 ETH from CEX Again, Worth $9.97 Million
US Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Employment Adds 139,000 in May, US Unemployment Rate at 4.2%
IOST Completes $21 Million Strategic Financing, with DWF Labs Among Investors
This article is supported by HashKey, HashKey is the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted crypto asset fiat gateway in Asia. Committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in compliance, fund security, and platform protection.
