Ethereum has recently outpaced Bitcoin in growth. This led to a sharp rise in the ETH/BTC trading pair, raising expectations for the upcoming altcoin season.
However, a closer look at historical data suggests these expectations may be premature.
A Breakthrough Bringing Hope
The ETH/BTC pair recorded a breakthrough for the first time since December 2024. It marked the first time in five months that the pair recorded a higher low point, which is generally considered a signal of an upward trend. This breakthrough is significant, recording a 34% increase in just one week.
This rise is almost the first in three years. The last comparable surge occurred in July 2022, when the ETH/BTC pair surged 56% in a month and a half. Despite these encouraging price movements, it remains to be seen whether this momentum can sustain and trigger a broader altcoin rally.
Ethereum's rapid growth in 2022 provides insight into the current situation. At that time, Ethereum's price surged 121% in a month, rising from around $1,800 to nearly $4,000. This impressive rally also triggered a broader altcoin season.
Historical data shows that after the bullish market in July 2022, the market confirmed an altcoin season in August 2022. Key conditions were met. 75% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies outperformed Bitcoin in the past 90 days. The altcoin index rose to 96. However, the current altcoin season index remains at 18. According to BlockchainCenter, Bitcoin is still dominant.
Additionally, only 18% of the top 50 coins are currently outperforming Bitcoin. These indicators highlight that despite the recent ETH/BTC breakthrough, the possibility of a full altcoin season in the short term is low. However, it cannot be completely ruled out. If altcoins rise in line with Bitcoin's growth, the market could witness an altcoin season before the end of the second quarter.
Will ETH Price Follow the Past?
Ethereum's price rally may not match the dramatic growth of July 2022. ETH has risen 32% in recent days. However, it would need an additional 67% increase to reach $4,004, which requires sustained bullish market conditions.
Nevertheless, Ethereum's more realistic goal is to break through and maintain the support level of $2,814. Transforming this resistance into support could enable further increases, with potential movements above $3,000.
However, this bullish outlook depends on maintaining key support levels. If Ethereum fails to break through $2,654 and falls below $2,344 or $2,141, it could erase recent gains and invalidate the positive price thesis.
