For many investors, Bitcoin (BTC) is like a dream of wealth. It is a magical asset that can grow by hundreds of percent each year, and an asset that sends value "to the moon" with a million-dollar price tag.
Analyst Willy Woo believes that Bitcoin's boom period has ended. However, not everyone agrees.
Willy Woo "Bitcoin CAGR Stabilizes at 8%"
Woo shared a chart titled "Bitcoin Annual Returns". This chart shows that Bitcoin's Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) has plummeted from over 100% in 2017 to around 30-40% since 2020.
This is the period when major institutions, corporations, and governments began to accumulate Bitcoin.
"People think BTC is a magical unicorn that goes to infinity. The actual CAGR chart looks like this. We are far past the era of hundreds of percent growth in 2017." – Willy Woo, Analyst
Woo predicts that Bitcoin's CAGR will continue to decrease over the next 15-20 years and eventually stabilize around 8%. This rate aligns with long-term monetary growth (5%) and GDP growth (3%). He emphasized that despite the low CAGR, Bitcoin would still outperform most other listed assets.
However, investor and writer Fred Krueger disagreed. He pointed out that Bitcoin has already increased sevenfold from its December 2022 low and is currently trading at $103,000 as of May 2025.
In a recent interview, Arthur Hayes went even further. He predicted that Bitcoin would reach $1 million before the end of Donald Trump's current term. He expects the price to reach $250,000 by the end of 2025, which means a 1,000% increase in just 4 years.
GDP and Liquidity Growth: Key to Bitcoin's Future Rise
Woo's prediction is primarily based on GDP expansion and monetary growth. Meanwhile, Paul Guerra, Social Responsibility Officer at RealVision, provided deeper insights into this issue.
While discussing liquidity, he argued that traditional diversified investment strategies may no longer work in today's market environment. This is because assets like stocks, bonds, Bitcoin, and real estate now tend to move together driven by a single core factor: liquidity.
"The true driver of markets is liquidity. The amount of money flowing through the system." – Paul Guerra, RealVision Social Responsibility Officer
The global liquidity index is currently growing at 8% annually. To understand liquidity, Paul suggested first understanding GDP. He presented a formula for GDP growth: GDP Growth = Population Growth + Productivity Growth + Debt Growth.
However, population growth and productivity are declining globally today. As a result, governments have no choice but to inject liquidity to maintain GDP and support increasing debt.
"The population is aging. Productivity growth is stagnant. Debt is exploding. Governments have no choice but to inject liquidity to maintain GDP and service people's debt." – Paul Guerra, RealVision Social Responsibility Officer
Consequently, liquidity is expected to increase even faster. Paul predicted that Bitcoin could reach $300,000 by the end of 2025 and enter what he calls the "Banana Zone". This term describes a period when asset prices surge due to abundant liquidity.
Historical examples include Bitcoin's 19,900% rise from 2013 to 2017 and Ethereum's 699,900% surge in the previous cycle.
However, these analyses focus on macroeconomic factors and overlook potential technological risks. For example, concerns are growing that advances in quantum computing could threaten Bitcoin's long-term reliability.
