Trading time: Currently, institutions dominate the Bitcoin market, retail investor participation is still low, and the market expects Bitcoin to break through $120,000 in June

1. Market Observation

Keywords: NXPC, ETH, BTC

On the first week of May 10, the number of initial jobless claims remained at 229,000, in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April unexpectedly declined, and retail sales performance stagnated. After these data were released, market expectations for two Fed rate cuts before the end of 2025 warmed up, with the US dollar index slightly lower and US stock futures rising short-term. Andrew Tyler, head of JPMorgan's market department, stated that the core elements of the bull market still exist, including macroeconomic resilience, improved corporate earnings, and easing trade conditions. He believes that although the risk of pullback has increased, the S&P 500 index may reach a historical high of 6,144 points this quarter. Regarding the 10-year US Treasury yield breaking 4.5%, Tyler does not see it as entirely negative and noted that the stock market typically needs 1-2 months to digest high yields. JPMorgan has raised its 2025 year-end 10-year US Treasury yield forecast from 4% to 4.35%, mainly based on higher expected real GDP growth and lower inflation expectations. Additionally, Fed Chairman Powell mentioned in the latest meeting that the Fed is adjusting its monetary policy framework to address significant changes in inflation and interest rate environments post-pandemic. He noted that the previously established policy framework is no longer applicable to the current environment and warned of potentially more frequent and persistent supply shocks in the future, which pose a serious challenge to the economy and central bank.

Bitcoin has been oscillating around its current price for a week, with continuously low trading volume. Analyst FilbFilb remains optimistic, believing the trend is extremely bullish, though it may briefly drop below $100,000, the overall trend favors the bulls. The market generally expects Bitcoin to challenge its historical high of $110,000 and potentially reach $120,000 to $150,000 in June. He also pointed out that ETH/BTC needs to rise to the critical level of 0.03 to drive an Altcoin market recovery. JPMorgan analysts predict Bitcoin may continue to outperform gold in the second half of 2025. Arthur Hayes is even more aggressive, predicting that foreign capital inflow and massive US Treasury devaluation will push Bitcoin to $1 million by 2028, though short-term tactical short opportunities may exist.

As MicroStrategy continues to accumulate Bitcoin, institutional investors view MicroStrategy stock as an effective indirect Bitcoin investment. Institutions like California Pension Fund and the Saudi Central Bank are increasing their holdings, while Wall Street's famous short-seller Jim Chanos has adopted a strategy of being bullish on Bitcoin while shorting MicroStrategy. Additionally, Brazilian listed company Méliuz, Japanese listed company Remixpoint, and cross-border e-commerce company DDC Enterprise are actively accumulating Bitcoin. 10x Research indicates that Bitcoin's recent rise is primarily driven by institutional accumulation rather than retail speculation, and the long-term bullish trend will continue as long as the price remains above $101,000. Matrixport's analysis also shows that the current Bitcoin rise is mainly driven by institutional and corporate buyers, with low retail participation. Historical experience suggests that retail funds typically enter en masse in the later stages of a trend, becoming the final push before a local top.

With Ethereum briefly surging and then falling back, the Altcoin market faces significant pullback. Believe ecosystem token LAUNCHCOIN experiences adjustment after rising for nearly a week, with its market cap now dropping to $200 million. Top projects GOONC and YAPPER have fallen 69% and 52% respectively. In the past 24 hours, the new project $WATCHCOIN, the first "watch-to-earn" application, opened with a sharp drop, with its market cap falling to $17 million. Despite raising over $8 million in SOL through pre-sale, concerns arise from the founder's historical controversies and oversupply risks. Notably, a former FBI director's Instagram post of a shell-shaped "8647" image sparked widespread discussion, but the related on-chain 8647 token currently has a market cap of only around $600,000.

2. Key Data (as of May 16, 12:00 HKT)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $103,957 (YTD +11.19%), daily spot trading volume $3.387 billion

• Ethereum: $2,576.41 (YTD -22.44%), daily spot trading volume $2.542 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 69 (Greed)

• Average Gas: BTC 0.6 sat/vB, ETH 0.88 Gwei

• Market Dominance: BTC 62.1%, ETH 9.4%

• Upbit 24-hour Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, NXPC, BTC, ETH, DOGE

• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 1.0141

• Sector Performance: Crypto market generally down, SocialFi sector down 3.49%, GameFi sector up 2.45%

• 24-hour Liquidation Data: Globally 182,529 people liquidated, total liquidation amount $460 million, with BTC liquidation $73.347 million, ETH liquidation $113 million, NXPC liquidation $25.495 million

• BTC Medium-Long-Term Trend Channel: Upper line ($102,098.66), Lower line ($100,076.91)

• ETH Medium-Long-Term Trend Channel: Upper line ($2,351.39), Lower line ($2,304.82)

*Note: When price is above upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium-long-term bullish trend; conversely, a bearish trend. When price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (as of May 15)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$115 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$39.786 million

4. Today's Outlook

5. Hot News

• A whale deposited 49,858 SOL to Kraken in the early morning, with a loss of $3.11 million

• Two addresses transferred nearly 11.11 million LDO to CEX within 3 days, and transferred out 19.41 million LDO 5 hours ago

• Omni Foundation has repurchased 6.77 million OMNI tokens from early investors, accounting for 6.77% of total supply

• Global business aviation trader Jetcraft will accept cryptocurrency payments for private jet transactions

• Compound team-related address deposited 250,100 COMP to Coinbase Prime, worth approximately $11.2 million

• Wintermute received 10 million MIRAI 7 hours ago, worth approximately $105,000

• US legislators will conduct final voting on the GENIUS stablecoin bill on May 19

• Cross-border e-commerce DDC Enterprise launches Bitcoin reserve strategy, aiming to reach 5,000 BTC within 36 months

• FTX will begin distributing over $5 billion to creditors according to the bankruptcy plan on May 30

• Sonic Labs terminates five-year exclusive market-making cooperation with Wintermute, shifting to MM++ plan supporting DeFi ecosystem

• 0x acquires competitor Flood, aiming to expand DEX aggregator market share

• Movement Labs reportedly privately promised advisors up to 10% token allocation

• US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10 were 229,000, in line with expectations

• Hong Kong family office Avenir Group holds BlackRock Bitcoin ETF worth $691 million

• Galaxy Digital transferred 17.82 million ENA to Binance, potentially facing a floating loss of $2.64 million

• Binance Wallet to launch 17th TGE: Alaya AI (AGT)

• Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin may rise to $1 million by 2028, but short opportunities may exist in the short term

• Ukraine plans to launch strategic Bitcoin reserve based on new crypto law