QCP 分析指出，美国与沙特达成 6000 亿美元贸易协议并启动关税回撤，引发市场强劲反弹。标普 500 指数收复上月 17% 跌幅，年初至今回到持平。美国 CPI 低于预期强化市场对降息预期，市场目前预计美联储将在 7 月首次降息，但 QCP 认为 9 月更为现实。目前对 2025 年的降息预期已降至两次。加密市场领涨，比特币逼近历史高位，ETH/BTC 升至 0.025。QCP 表示，随着 C...

<div><div><div>QCP 分析指出，美国与沙特达成 6000 亿美元贸易协议并启动关税回撤，引发市场强劲反弹。标普 500 指数收复上月 17% 跌幅，年初至今回到持平。美国 CPI 低于预期强化市场对降息预期，市场目前预计美联储将在 7 月首次降息，但 QCP 认为 9 月更为现实。目前对 2025 年的降息预期已降至两次。加密市场领涨，比特币逼近历史高位，ETH/BTC 升至 0.025。QCP 表示，随着 Coinbase 将于 5 月 19 日纳入标普 500，加密资产有望继续上涨。</div><div> </div></div><br><br><br></div>

QCP：美联储首降或延至 9 月，晚于市场预期的 7 月

QCP analysis points out that the trade agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia, worth $600 billion, and the initiation of tariff rollback have triggered a strong market rebound. The S&P 500 index has recovered from last month's 17% decline, returning to a flat position year-to-date. The U.S. CPI being lower than expected has strengthened market expectations for interest rate cuts. The market currently anticipates the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in July, but QCP believes September is more realistic. Expectations for rate cuts in 2025 have been reduced to two. The crypto market is leading the gains, with Bitcoin approaching its all-time high, and ETH/BTC rising to 0.025. QCP states that as C...

<div><div><div>QCP analysis points out that the trade agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia, worth $600 billion, and the initiation of tariff rollback have triggered a strong market rebound. The S&P 500 index has recovered from last month's 17% decline, returning to a break-even point year-to-date. The U.S. CPI being lower than expected has strengthened market expectations for rate cuts, with the market currently anticipating the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in July, though QCP believes September is more realistic. Expectations for rate cuts in 2025 have been reduced to two. The crypto market is leading the gains, with Bitcoin approaching its all-time high, and ETH/BTC rising to 0.025. QCP states that as Coinbase is set to be included in the S&P 500 on May 19, crypto assets are expected to continue rising.</div><div> </div></div><br><br><br></div>

QCP: The Fed's first rate cut may be delayed to September, later than the market's expectation of July

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: According to QCP Capital, the United States and China agree to temporarily cancel some tariffs, driving the U.S. stock market up by 3%. Gold prices fell nearly 3% before partially recovering. BTC and ETH initially declined, then stabilized at around $103,000 and $2,400 respectively. BTC's dominance dropped below 63%, while ETH and other Altcoins performed well. BTC continues to oscillate between its "digital gold" identity and risk asset role, creating uncertainty about its direction. As the macro narrative shifts from protectionism to trade optimism, BTC may maintain range-bound fluctuations. However, a long-term investment perspective might support backend option demand, reduce frontend put hedging needs, and lead to a steeper volatility curve. In comparison, ETH's trend appears more clear. Capital remains neutral, with options leaning bearish, indicating its breakthrough is not speculation-driven. Breaking through $2,400 coincides with the Pectra upgrade, and the reemergence of long-term option liquidity may signal ETH becoming the market's next major allocation target.

QCP Capital: BTC may remain range-bound as macro narrative shifts from protectionism to trade optimism

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: After negotiations in Geneva, China and the United States agreed to reduce tariffs and give each other time to resolve differences. This progress marks an important milestone between the two economic giants. Large technology stocks, which were previously hit hard during the sell-off, are expected to rise significantly at the opening, while safe-haven assets decline, with gold, the Japanese yen, and Swiss franc all falling simultaneously. Traders are also reducing their bets on the extent of central bank rate cuts this year. Swap contracts linked to the Federal Reserve now tend to suggest a 25 basis point rate cut in September. Last week, these contracts had implied a potential policy change as early as July. (Jinshi)

Swap contracts tied to the Fed meeting favor a 25 basis point rate cut in September

Hotcoin Research Market Insights: May 5, 2025