Bitcoin (BTC), ‘Leverage Rally’ Ahead of $90,000… Liquidation Battle Imminent

Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 17.39% and 2.3% in February and March, respectively, but rebounded by 3.77% in April, starting the second quarter on a positive note. After touching the year's low of $74,500, it has recovered to near $90,000, successfully defending its price. Bitcoin is forming an upward breakthrough trend on the medium to long-term time series chart for the first time this year, raising expectations for continued strength. However, experts analyze that this rise may face resistance around $90,000 in the short term, as it is based on leverage. According to CoinTelegraph, the BTC-USDT leverage ratio in the futures market has shrunk by nearly half, gradually moving away from an overheated state. While this is positive in the long term, derivative investors are likely to lead the market over physical markets for now, requiring more time to balance supply and demand. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. analyzed that the cumulative net buy amount surged to $800 million on April 11. He noted that Bitcoin's price quickly rose from $78,000 to $85,000 in three days, repeating past similar patterns. Crypto Quant analyst Maartunn also confirmed this rebound as a "leverage-driven surge" and pointed out the absence of physical market demand. Crypto Quant data shows Bitcoin's 30-day demand is recovering, but net demand has not yet turned positive. Based on past cases, this indicator often maintains a sideways trend after forming a bottom, suggesting a potential accumulation period rather than an immediate sharp rise. An additional concern is the possibility of large-scale leverage liquidation. According to CoinGlass, if Bitcoin's price rises to $90,035, short positions totaling $6.5 billion will be subject to liquidation. Conversely, if it drops to $80,071, long positions of about $4.86 billion will be at risk. With liquidation volumes concentrated in this price range, the market may be disrupted by liquidation-inducing strategies, potentially causing short-term directional confusion and a potential squeeze in both directions. Market participants believe that without substantial physical market demand, Bitcoin will find it challenging to decisively break through the $90,000 resistance. To maintain an upward trend, the spread of physical market buying is essential, making widespread capital inflow a key factor going forward.