市场分析：预计欧洲央行不会在7月份降息

Odaily Odaily News Goldman Sachs said it expects the European Central Bank's benchmark interest rate to reach 2% by June. The central bank is not expected to cut interest rates in July, while the previous forecast was a 25 basis point cut. (Jinshi Data)

Odaily reports that Goldman Sachs expects the European Central Bank's benchmark interest rate to reach 2% by June. The bank is not expected to cut rates in July, contrary to the previous forecast of a 25-basis-point cut. (<金十数据>)

Market analysis: ECB is not expected to cut interest rates in July

Odaily reports that Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida hinted in a speech that the benchmark interest rate will continue to be gradually raised, which may help allay speculation about an early rate hike. On Wednesday, Uchida told business leaders: "If the economic outlook materializes, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise the policy interest rate accordingly and adjust the degree of monetary easing. In this regard, the key point of the outlook is that the central bank expects to achieve its 2% price stability target." Uchida said officials would have to monitor the economy's reaction to each rate hike, as the central bank has raised rates three times in the past 12 months because it is difficult to accurately judge where the neutral rate that is neither restrictive nor stimulative is. This comment suggests that the central bank is unlikely to raise rates at two consecutive meetings, including a rate hike in January and another in March. He hinted that based on a range of estimates, the benchmark rate could rise to at least 1% by the end of fiscal 2026. (Jinshi)

Bank of Japan deputy governor hints: unlikely to raise interest rates for two consecutive meetings

Odaily Odaily reported that after the release of the US "Small Non-Farm" ADP employment data, according to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 93% (89% yesterday), and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 7%. There are currently about 14 days left until the next FOMC meeting.

After the release of the US "small non-farm" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 93%.

Odaily Odaily News reports that Deutsche Bank's economic team holds the most hawkish Wall Street view on the Federal Reserve's policy in 2025, predicting that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year. Although this remains the official position of the team, chief U.S. economist Matthew Luzzetti acknowledged that the impact of President Trump's new tariffs could jeopardize this forecast. "You're certainly starting to see some negative impacts of trade uncertainty in the economic data," Luzzetti said, "and if that broadens and manifests in weak labor market data, the Fed may cut rates this year." However, Luzzetti said that before changing its forecast for the Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank wants to see how long the tariffs will last. (Jin Shi)