Odaily星球日报讯 德意志银行的经济团队对美联储 2025 年的政策持华尔街最鹰派的看法，他们预测美联储今年不会降息。虽然这仍然是该团队的官方立场，但首席美国经济学家 Matthew Luzzetti 承认，特朗普新关税的影响可能会危及这一预测。“你肯定已经开始在经济数据中看到贸易不确定性的一些负面影响，”Luzzetti 表示，“如果这种影响扩大，并体现在疲弱的劳动力市场数据上，美联储可能会在今年降息。”不过，Luzzetti 表示，在改变对美联储的预测之前，德意志银行希望看看关税将维持多久。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 德意志银行的经济团队对美联储 2025 年的政策持华尔街最鹰派的看法，他们预测美联储今年不会降息。虽然这仍然是该团队的官方立场，但首席美国经济学家 Matthew Luzzetti 承认，特朗普新关税的影响可能会危及这一预测。“你肯定已经开始在经济数据中看到贸易不确定性的一些负面影响，”Luzzetti 表示，“如果这种影响扩大，并体现在疲弱的劳动力市场数据上，美联储可能会在今年降息。”不过，Luzzetti 表示，在改变对美联储的预测之前，德意志银行希望看看关税将维持多久。（金十）

贸易战动摇德银对美联储的鹰派看法，年内降息不再是不可能

Odaily Odaily News reports that Deutsche Bank's economic team holds the most hawkish Wall Street view on the Federal Reserve's policy in 2025, predicting that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year. Although this remains the official position of the team, chief U.S. economist Matthew Luzzetti acknowledged that the impact of President Trump's new tariffs could jeopardize this forecast. "You're certainly starting to see some negative impacts of trade uncertainty in the economic data," Luzzetti said, "and if that broadens and manifests in weak labor market data, the Fed may cut rates this year." However, Luzzetti said that before changing its forecast for the Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank wants to see how long the tariffs will last. (Jin Shi)

Odaily Odaily News reports that the economic team of Deutsche Bank holds the most hawkish view on the Federal Reserve's policy in 2025, predicting that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year. Although this remains the official position of the team, the chief US economist, Matthew Luzzetti, admitted that the impact of Trump's new tariffs could jeopardize this forecast. "You've certainly started to see some negative impacts of trade uncertainty in the economic data," Luzzetti said, "and if that broadens and manifests in weaker labor market data, the Fed may cut rates this year." However, Luzzetti said that before changing the forecast for the Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank wants to see how long the tariffs will last. (Jinshi)

Trade war shakes Deutsche Bank's hawkish view on the Fed, rate cuts are no longer impossible this year

Odaily Odaily News reports that traders are increasing their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, with the market now fully pricing in three rate cuts by 2025. (<金十>)

Markets now fully price in three Fed rate cuts by 2025

Odaily reports that BCA Research chief strategist Dhaval Joshi told Business Insider that he believes the US could enter a "mini-stagflation" as early as the second quarter of this year. Joshi said that inflation appears to be "stuck" above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Higher prices will make the Federal Reserve reluctant to cut rates further this year, which could exacerbate the economic slowdown. He added, "I think this could happen quite soon." Stifel managing director and chief equity strategist Barry Bannister told Business Insider this month that he expects the US to enter a moderate stagflation scenario in the second half of 2025, and believes this could lead to a 10% drop in US stocks. (Jinshi)

Strategist: The United States may fall into "mini stagflation" in the second quarter of this year, making the Federal Reserve reluctant to further cut interest rates this year

Odaily reports that Monex Europe analysts said in a report that the US dollar extended its decline on Tuesday, hitting a 12-week low, as concerns over the weakening US economic growth outlook weighed on the dollar. They said the concerns over economic growth stem from the Trump administration's tariffs and broader policies, as well as recent weak US economic data. But these concerns over US economic growth may be "somewhat exaggerated". At the same time, the market may have underestimated the impact of tariffs in other regions. They said the US import tariffs should still have a net positive impact on the US dollar. Currently, traders may need time to digest the full impact of the latest developments, so for those betting on a stronger US dollar, this may be a "difficult process". (Gold Ten Data APP)