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Haotian | CryptoInsight
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独立研究员| Researcher | 以技术和商业视角解读区块链前沿科技 | ZK、AI Agent、DePIN ,etc | 硬核科普 | Previously:@ambergroup_io | @peckshield | DMs for Collab | 社群只对Substack订阅会员开放
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Haotian | CryptoInsight
2 days ago
What should a good project's "ecological niche" be like? After in-depth conversations with some bosses, I found that most projects haven't found their precise positioning: 1. High technical barriers, but must have deep application scenarios. For example, ZK zero-knowledge proof can do zkVM, cross-chain bridges, and verifiable computing, but considering comprehensive cost and efficiency, currently only zk-Rollup layer2 scaling has been successful. Other directions can't find deep application scenarios; no matter how advanced the technology is, it remains a castle in the air. Mind Network's FHE technology seems to have high barriers, but has always struggled to find application scenarios. Most projects developing ZK co-processors face the same issue; 2. Market demand must be practical, not driven by imagination. Some projects often assume that if 1% of users use their product, the commercial imagination space would be huge, but in reality, even this 1% demand might be fabricated. Huma's PayFi entry into accounts receivable and cross-border payments seems relatively reliable based on compliance background. But those projects claiming to create a "decentralized Stripe" - what's wrong with traditional payment methods?; 3. Business model must shuttle between B2B and B2C. Pure B2C enjoys FOMO dividends but can't survive the winter; pure B2B leaves retail investors feeling disconnected, with high marketing costs. The smartest approach is to cater to both - institutional and retail buyers - to cross market cycles. Backpack wallet + exchange + Non-Fungible Token community covers both institutions and retail. Particle's chain abstraction + application products also balance B2B and B2C. In contrast, pure infrastructure projects aiming to build full-chain DA layers can only survive on institutional blood transfusions; 4. Commercial vision only needs to be "unfalsifiable", not overly ambitious. What's "unfalsifiable"? Something that can't be proven wrong in the short term. Some layer2 projects always say "we just need one mass adoption wave to explode" - such grand visions that can't be verified short-term are equivalent to having no prospects. KaitoAI might not even be an AI company, but it has captured the business gap in KOL and project party attention economy, thus possessing unfalsifiability. Stop trying to "redefine XXX"; 5. Timing is crucial. The intersection of technology maturity, market education, and competitive landscape determines the time window. Why are AI Agents hot now? LLM is usable, TEE is mature, user acceptance has risen. Talking about AI disrupting everything three years ago was pure nonsense. During the Solana MEME wave, some projects are still doing GameFi, hoping for sector rotation. Understanding the MEME operational logic reveals why slow, long-cycle game projects can't reach the spotlight; 6. Ecosystem must have self-growth attributes, not forever driven by operations. Airdrops attract users, grants subsidize developers - these are just initial means. True network effect means more users create more value, more developers strengthen the ecosystem. Those layer2 projects maintaining heat through point wars - from zkSync to Scroll to Linea - where are their real users after losing airdrop hunters?
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Haotian | CryptoInsight
2 days ago
Here's the translation: Recently, many people have asked me about my thoughts on the new game in the Base ecosystem, @b3dotfun. Under the operation of Coinbase's former employees, can this L3 designed specifically for on-chain games truly solve the "island" problem of Web3 games? Let me discuss this in detail: ——Open Game Web3 New Concept B3's "open game" concept has a clear goal: break the current isolated state of Web3 games. The current situation is indeed like this. Look at top chain games like Axie Infinity, STEPN, Parallel - which one isn't creating a closed loop in their own ecosystem? Users have to switch different chains, handle different tokens, and adapt to different wallets to play different games, resulting in a fragmented experience. B3's solution is to use the GameChains architecture to maintain game independence while achieving interoperability. For example, Parallel's Prime chain and Infinigods' God chain can run independently on B3 while sharing liquidity and user incentives at the bottom layer. This "having it both ways" idea sounds ideal, mainly depending on whether it can be implemented. The problem is that for GameChains to truly achieve interoperability, games need to reach consensus on technical standards, asset definitions, and economic models. This is fundamentally an issue of interest distribution, not a technical problem. Fortunately, B3's backing in the Coinbase ecosystem indeed provides inherent advantages, with Base's traffic entry and compliance endorsement, which can indeed attract many game developers to actively integrate. ——L3 Architecture + Chain Abstraction Technical Combination From a technical architecture perspective, B3 has chosen a relatively stable but distinctive route. As an L3 on Base, the transaction cost is controlled at around $0.001, which is indeed very attractive for chain games. B3's AnySpend technology allows users to instantly access cross-chain assets through a single account without manually switching networks or bridging tokens. In other words, it's essentially a hybrid mode of "sharding + cross-chain", where each GameChain maintains an independent state, but achieves atomic cross-chain operations through B3's unified settlement layer, avoiding the security risks and time delays of traditional bridging solutions. Plainly speaking, B3 is doing a game operation business, not an infrastructure business of selling pickaxes. However, the L3 track is fiercely competitive. You have the Base ecosystem, others have Arbitrum's Orbit, Polygon's CDK. B3's differentiated moat might lie in its deep understanding of game scenarios and unified entry services like http:/BSMNT.fun. ——Tokenomics Design and Business Model B3's token allocation is relatively balanced: 34.2% goes to the community ecosystem, with only 19% released at TGE, and the remaining part has a 4-year lock-up plan, avoiding short-term selling pressure. $B3's application scenarios include staking to obtain GameChains rewards, funding game projects, and paying transaction fees, with a relatively complete logic. From a business model perspective, B3 adopts a "platform economy + network effect" model. Unlike traditional game publishers who take 30-70% commission, B3 attracts ecosystem participants through lower transaction fees (0.5%) and token incentives. The key value flywheel is: more games join → more players gather → stronger network effect → higher $B3 demand → more resources invested in the ecosystem. I'm particularly interested in B3's positioning as the "main circulating token for cross-chain games". Currently, most chain games have their own token economics. How will B3 convince these projects to accept $B3 as a universal currency? From a valuation perspective, B3 looks more like a "game version of App Store", with value coming not just from technical fees, but more from ecosystem scale effects. The most notable aspect of B3 is not technical innovation, but its systematic attempt to solve structural problems in the Web3 gaming industry. From team background and resource integration capabilities, the Coinbase system team, Base ecosystem support, and $21 million in funding are solid advantages. 6 million active wallet users, over 80 integrated games, and 300 million cumulative transactions show that B3 indeed has a method for user acquisition and ecosystem building. B3's differentiation lies in its middle route of "neither completely relying on a single game IP nor doing pure technical infrastructure", which theoretically has more imaginative space but also faces the risk of "not fitting in anywhere". Of course, the Web3 gaming track is still in an early exploration stage. Whether B3 can truly implement its "open game" vision depends on its ability to continuously attract high-quality game content and real users. After all, no matter how good the infrastructure is, its value ultimately depends on the prosperity of its application ecosystem.
B3
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Haotian | CryptoInsight
06-04
The system looked at this Q1 report and extended some thoughts: Many people treat @UseUniversalX as the entirety of @ParticleNtwrk, and discussions about Particle's future business prospects tend to focus on UX. This equating of "application" with "entire infrastructure" is clearly a misunderstanding: Particle Network ≠ UniversalX Particle Network is essentially a "blockchain of blockchains" - it is not trying to directly compete with public chains like Ethereum and Solana, but rather aims to become the underlying infrastructure connecting and unifying all public chains. Simply put, UniversalX's experience is indeed good, allowing direct purchase of MEME on Solana using ETH from Base in one smooth process, hence UniversalX is called a cutting-edge "dog-hitting artifact". However, beyond the DEX application itself, the truly smooth trading experience is driven by the entire infrastructure based on "Chain Abstraction". Supporting Particle's powerful functionality are its three core infrastructure components: Universal Accounts, Universal Liquidity, and Universal Gas. In my view, this is the core competitiveness, with UX being just a showcase proving that this tech stack indeed works: Universal Accounts: Solving identity authentication and asset management pain points in a multi-chain environment. Traditionally, users need to maintain multiple wallet addresses across different chains, switching networks and managing different private keys for each cross-chain operation. Particle's unified account system, based on account abstraction technology, allows users to operate seamlessly across all supported blockchain networks with a single identity, reducing user learning costs and, more importantly, eliminating security risks in multi-chain operations; Universal Liquidity: Through smart router algorithms and cross-chain liquidity aggregation, it can scan liquidity conditions of various DEXs and cross-chain bridges in real-time, providing users with the optimal trading path and price. This means that when trading on UniversalX, the system will automatically call liquidity from multiple protocols like Uniswap, 1INCH, Jupiter, ensuring users can complete transactions with minimal slippage and lowest cost; Universal Gas: Addressing the troublesome gas fee management in multi-chain operations. Users no longer need to prepare native tokens for each chain as gas fees. The Particle system can pay gas fees on all chains with any token (such as USDC), with the backend automatically performing token conversion and gas fee payment, making cross-chain operations feel like a "one-click" process. It's important to know that the power of this infrastructure lies in its modularity and composability. In other words, Particle can not only support its own UniversalX application but, more importantly, provide underlying chain abstraction services for other DeFi protocols, game projects, Non-Fungible Token platforms, etc. This "ChA as a Service" business model allows it to expand from a single application to an infrastructure provider for the entire multi-chain ecosystem. From a longer-term market positioning perspective, what Particle Network is doing is similar to building an "operating system" for the blockchain industry. Just as Android and iOS unified mobile app development standards in the mobile internet era, Particle seeks to provide a unified interaction standard and user experience for the multi-chain era, becoming a bridge connecting users with the complex multi-chain world. In the current context of modular blockchain explosion and "multi-chain" development, chain abstraction has moved from concept to necessity. And infrastructure like $PARTI is precisely positioned at the forefront of solving the industry's core pain points. Ultimately, UniversalX is just the first successful case of Particle Network's chain abstraction infrastructure. The true value release will be demonstrated through application explosions in more vertical scenarios. This infrastructure-level value will far exceed innovation at the application layer.
PARTI
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Haotian | CryptoInsight
06-04
Thread
Seeing that http:/Pump.fun is seeking to raise $1 billion with a $40 billion valuation, it's a mixed feeling. It's hard to imagine that a MEME launch platform's valuation would surpass most DeFi blue-chip protocols. Is this sky-high valuation reasonable? Here are a few perspectives: 1) Overly Inflated Market Valuation is Unreasonable From the data, http:/Pump.fun is indeed the biggest beneficiary of this MEME super cycle, with monthly revenue peaks reaching tens of millions of dollars - a wealth-creating effect that would be phenomenal even in traditional internet. However, http:/Pump.fun's attention economy is dependent on the short-term, irrational FOMO of MEME coins. Essentially, it's monetizing traffic driven by "gambling" instincts. This means http:/Pump.fun's business model's monetization capability is purely a product of short-term market spotlight, not a sustainable normalized profit logic. Based on this, is a $4 billion valuation reasonable? This pricing far exceeds most DeFi blue-chip protocols, making it hard to imagine a platform mocked for "cutting leeks" would overshadow innovative blue-chip protocols. Once the MEME craze subsides or the market returns to rationality, http:/Pump.fun's revenue model would instantly collapse. 2) Fragile Business Moat Easily Overtaken http:/Pump.fun's success seems accidental but was inevitable, capturing Solana's high-performance, low-cost technical dividend and the MEME culture's transition from niche to mainstream. But how deep is this "first-mover advantage"? Technically, similar launch platforms can be quickly replicated; operationally, MEME launch platforms are essentially traffic businesses, with extremely low user migration costs if hot spots shift or regulations tighten. More critically, http:/Pump.fun is highly dependent on the Solana ecosystem. If significant changes occur in Solana, its business model's fragility will be exposed. A business model built on others' infrastructure is essentially "living under someone else's roof", especially with such high unsustainability - how could it support a $4 billion independent valuation? 3) Launchpad's Tool-like Attributes Struggle to Create Ecosystem Currently, http:/Pump.fun is just a "coin issuance tool" making money, but to support a $4 billion market valuation, it would need a massive MEME economic ecosystem. Knowing it's impossible yet still attempting it, it's hard to imagine the purpose behind raising $1 billion. Transforming from a pure Launchpad to a complex MEME economic ecosystem inherently contains a paradox: MEME culture's core is simplicity, directness, and viral spread. Excessive functional layering would only make the platform lose its original "wildness". 4) Extremely High Valuation May Distort Value Innovation System http:/Pump.fun's ultra-high valuation sends a dangerous signal to the entire industry: in the current Crypto ecosystem, "traffic aggregation + speculative monetization" might be more valuable than "technological innovation + infrastructure". When creating gambling platforms becomes more profitable than promoting technological innovation, who would still invest in infrastructure? It's hard to imagine what catastrophic industry chain reactions this new value orientation might produce. Overall, http:/Pump.fun's token issuance is both a sign of MEME economy's maturity and potentially a signal of industry value collapse. The key is whether it can truly build a sustainable business moat after obtaining massive capital, or this abnormal valuation will bring massive innovation disasters to the entire industry.
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Haotian | CryptoInsight
06-02
RWA track needs to first establish the B-end infrastructure before the C-end story can continue. Recently, @plumenetwork launched its mainnet Alpha test in mid-May, but stipulated that retail investors are not allowed to participate, and only more capable institutional players can experience it first. After more than half a month, by introducing real-world assets such as government bonds, AI, gold, stocks, and GPUs onto the chain, it has attracted well-known institutions like Superstate, Invesco, and Blackstone, with numerous RWAfi protocols being deployed successively. Looking back, the significance lies in running Plume's core technology stack in a real environment to see if it can withstand institutional-level funds and transaction volumes. The goal is to verify whether the RWA on-chain infrastructure can pass the pressure test of institutional-level B-end pipelines. According to incomplete statistical data, Plume's "full suite" technology stack has indeed withstood certain pressures. The Arc tokenization engine + Nexus data bridge + Passport smart wallet directly addresses the three major pain points of RWA on-chain: compliance, data credibility, and user experience. Especially, Plume's "built-in compliance" design approach essentially redefines traditional financial infrastructure using the ERC3643 standard + on-chain KYC/AML framework. In other words, Plume's technology stack indeed provides a systematic and thorough alternative solution, which is why it can be quickly integrated by institutions. However, while the Alpha stage performance is good, when the retail market opens, Plume will need to maintain institutional-level strict compliance standards while providing retail investors with sufficient liquidity and attractive returns. Moreover, with over 20,000 pre-deposited users waiting for the Genesis stage, these real funds will be a more direct test than any pressure test. In short, the Genesis stage is the true ultimate test.
Plume - RWAfi Chain
@plumenetwork
05-12
Today, we're excited to unveil the first step of our mainnet journey: Plume Alpha. 🪶 We've always said that onchain RWAs shouldn't feel like classic RWAs -they should feel like crypto. On Plume, you'll be able to stake, swap, lend, borrow, and speculate with RWAs as seamlessly
PLUME
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