Cardano faces the risk of breaking below $0.405 as indicators strongly suggest a decline, although Midnight's newly launched NIGHT Token has briefly triggered a rebound.
NIGHT launched amidst heavy losses for Cardano holder . ADA surged from $0.37 to $0.484 (+30.6%) before losing momentum and failing to reclaim the long-term resistance of $0.52, signaling that selling pressure remains dominant.
- Closing the day below $0.405 confirms the bearish structure; a loss of $0.37 extends the downtrend.
- CMF below -0.05 and DMI reinforce the bearish trend from the 10/10 crash.
- Short selling pressure above $0.48 could attract price, but the $0.43–$0.44 level is hindering a rapid rebound.
The downward trend for Cardano is currently dominant.
ADA will confirm a bearish structure if it closes below $0.405; a break below $0.37 would signal a continuation of the deeper downtrend.
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On the daily chart, the pivot Dip at $0.405 is under threat. A close below this level would reverse the structure toward a bearish direction. On the downside, $0.37 is the next key support; a simultaneous loss of both $0.405 and $0.37 would confirm a continuation of the downtrend.
The CMF falling below -0.05 indicates renewed selling pressure and Capital outflows. This signal aligns with the DMI, which has been steadily trending downwards since the October 10th crash, reinforcing the bears' dominance.
In terms of price, the rebound driven by the NIGHT story only pushed ADA up to $0.484 and failed to recapture the long-term resistance of $0.52. The failure at $0.52 confirms the lack of sustainable buying pressure.
Liquidation clusters above $0.48 could pull prices up in the short term.
The 1-month liquidation map shows a cluster of Short liquidations above $0.48, which could pull the price up before resuming its downward trend.
The CoinGlass platform shows a liquidation zone located above the swing near $0.48, which triggered a price surge earlier this month. However, low liquidation between $0.4–$0.5 makes the surge unsustainable, and the $0.43–$0.44 range could hinder a quick rebound.
Preferred trade setup: wait for a break below $0.405 and then retest.
A break below $0.405, followed by a retest of this level as resistance, could create a bullish selling opportunity.
Although the daily price chart structure remains positive, Bitcoin's technical indicators and volatility do not support the ADA bulls. Notably, the upward move stalled at $0.48 instead of pausing at $0.45 or $0.43, reflecting a lack of demand, as confirmed by the CMF.
- Sell scenario: Break below $0.405, retest fails → look for a continuation bearish setup.
- Risk: Bitcoin volatility may cause false breakouts; confirmation candles are needed.
Confirmation levels for the bulls
Holding above $0.405 and breaking back above $0.43 would give the bulls a basis for cautious optimism.
If $0.405 is defended, a close above $0.43 opens the door to a retest of $0.44–$0.48, but the $0.43–$0.44 area remains a near resistance. The start of the week could provide further clues to momentum for the following week, especially given Bitcoin's high volatility.
Frequently Asked Questions
At what level does ADA need to remain to avoid confirming a downtrend?
ADA needs to avoid closing the day below $0.405. If it breaks below $0.405, the risk of it falling to $0.37 increases, and the downtrend could continue.
What factors could disrupt the ADA's downward trend?
Bitcoin's volatility can distort bearish continuation signals, causing false breakouts or short-term rebounds before a clear main trend emerges.
Which liquidation zones could drive ADA prices down in the short term?
The 1-month liquidation map shows that the cluster of Short liquidations above $0.48 could attract price, but the $0.43–$0.44 area could hinder a quick rebound.
