My honest feeling about the market lately can be summed up in one sentence: BTC is now behaving more and more like a clone, with a strong sense of market manipulation.
Last night, US stocks plummeted, and BTC followed suit, falling below $90,000, but quickly rebounded. The problem is— the rebound lacked any real strength . With this kind of movement, don't expect a smooth upward trend in the short term; it seems more like the market is being manipulated.
As for the real direction to be chosen, I think we'll most likely have to wait until Japan raises interest rates .
Structurally, it's quite clear: the key is whether the price can hold above 95,000 on the 4-hour chart. Only if it holds above that level will it be qualified to test 100,000; if it can't hold 90,000 , then it will have to accept a second dip and continue to fluctuate within a large range.
Ethereum has seen consecutive large bearish candles over the past two days, causing panic among many. However, I believe this is normal; it's a typical double retest of the neckline . In the early stages of a bullish trend, repeated market corrections are necessary to clear out floating profits and scare off retail investors. The fact that it briefly broke through the neckline this morning but quickly rebounded indicates that the support level is effective. The failure to break through the long-term downtrend line in one go doesn't mean the trend is bad; rather, it's building momentum for the next upward move. The overall trend of rising highs and lows, coupled with the large bearish candle followed by a doji on the 4-hour chart, suggests a consolidation pattern rather than a reversal.
However, the market environment must be clearly explained: Currently, there are speculative funds manipulating CEXs daily, and there's also market manipulation in Alpha , but overall liquidity is extremely poor, the market is weak, and trading is very difficult. At this stage, if you're unsure, it's much safer to trade less than to trade frequently .
The pullback is a process, not the end. Theoretically, the direction is still upward, but reality is harsh. The Fed has tentatively chosen its personnel for rate cuts, and the expectations of rate cuts and balance sheet expansion haven't brought about a real market recovery. I've chosen to concede defeat—not out of a bearish belief, but because I see the risk of a market reversal and decline approaching .
The rebound from 80,600 has lasted for three weeks now, and frankly, it's only been mediocre. Apart from Ethereum, which has performed relatively well, the rebounds of BTC and most altcoins have been quite weak. The 94,000 level has presented several obstacles, and the price has consistently failed to break through, which is clearly not right.
So, around the time of this week's interest rate cut, I reduced my holdings by about 35% at relatively high levels, basically clearing out all altcoins and closing off all risk exposure; I also made some significant cuts in my mainstream holdings. The substantial drawdown in my real-money account is painful, but I accept it. In a bear market, risk control is always the top priority ; survival comes first.
I originally expected this rebound to reach 98,000-100,000 before clearing my positions, but the longer it drags on, the greater the uncertainty. The inability to capitalize on positive news is itself a risk. Now BTC has formed a triangle consolidation pattern , and a turning point is expected next week. Based on previous similar patterns, a break below the short-term trendline would have serious consequences.
The current key support level is at 88,000 . If this level is breached, it's likely to test even lower levels. This is why I don't want to gamble anymore. Of course, it's not entirely hopeless for a rebound to higher levels, but it needs to at least stabilize above 95,000 to truly alleviate the pressure before even considering 100,000.
Next week, there's another significant negative factor – the Bank of Japan raising interest rates . Even if it's already partially priced in, I don't want to gamble with real money. The biggest problem is the persistently low liquidity in the market; there's no momentum, no follow-through buying.
I still believe that BTC touching $100,000 isn't entirely impossible, but it won't happen this month . Liquidity will only worsen during Christmas and New Year's, and a real chance might have to wait for a rebound and short squeeze in the first quarter. Those who can endure can do so, but I choose to focus only on the short term, cut my losses, and not let the market continuously drain my energy.
My next strategy will be more realistic:
Lower your expectations, conserve your strength , focus on short-term trading, and start establishing short positions in mainstream low-leverage instruments, taking it one step at a time. When it comes to truly positioning for the next bull market, I prefer to wait for a lower, safer entry point.
The market won't disappear, but once the funds are gone, they're truly gone. At this stage, survival is more important than anything else.
The opportunity will be gone in the blink of an eye, everyone gather quickly!
Don't let hesitation delay your chance to make money, and don't get burned by worthless cryptocurrencies. Join Sister Miao and let's ride this bull market together!
Contact me via WeChat: Mixm5688 or QQ: 2234099968
