The CFTC has given its unofficial "nod" to four prediction market platforms: Polymarket, PredictIt, Gemini , and LedgerX/MIAX.
The CFTC has given the green light and issued no-action letters to Polymarket, Gemini, PredictIt, and LedgerX.
The CFTC is easing regulations on the prediction market.
- The US prediction market is entering a period of significant transformation as the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) has officially issued no-action letters to four major prediction market platforms: Polymarket , PredictIt, Gemini , and LedgerX/MIAX.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued no-action letters to Polymarket, PredictIt, Gemini, and LedgerX/MIAX, granting conditional relief from certain recordkeeping and data-reporting requirements. The move means the regulator will not pursue enforcement…
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) December 12, 2025
- These entities are partially exempt from the stringent regulations that apply to traditional Derivative markets, specifically the requirement to maintain detailed records of all transactions and report them to a national Derivative data repository. These are costly and complex procedures, typically only applied to large Wall Street financial institutions.
Thanks to this decision, prediction markets like Polymarket, PredictIt, Gemini , and LedgerX can operate legally in the US without having to bear the full costs and oversight of a traditional Derivative exchange.
However, to qualify for "conditional exemption," units must commit to adhering to a strict set of financial monitoring and assurance standards, including:
All transaction contracts must be fully collateralized at all times to eliminate the risk of default or insolvency.
Clearing is only permitted through designated platforms or through approved independent clearing members.
All data and transaction results must be publicly disclosed on the platform immediately after the contract is executed, ensuring transparency and community oversight.
Companies are still required to maintain some record-keeping and transaction documentation so that the CFTC can conduct inspections or investigations when necessary.
- The CFTC asserts that this is a loosening of control within its regulatory framework, similar to how the agency handled some traditional Derivative exchanges in their early stages of development.
- The CFTC's decision is considered the most significant milestone for the US prediction market industry since 2022, when Polymarket was fined and forced to restrict its operations to US users.
- Previously, the CFTC also issued a no-action letter to QCX (an accredited Derivative exchange) and QC Clearing (a Derivative clearing organization). This move came after Polymarket spent $112 million to acquire QCEX .
- Now, the issuance of an additional no-action letter to Polymarket has officially brought the platform back into legal operation in the US market, after federal investigations concluded in the summer of 2025 without new charges.
- In addition, the CFTC's issuance of a no-action letter shows that the regulatory body has shifted from strict to conditional supervision, reflecting a more open approach to blockchain-based financial products, especially in the context of projects like Kalshi and Polymarket attracting billions of dollars in volume.
Coinbase is preparing to launch a prediction market and Tokenize stocks.
According to sources close to the matter, as cited by Bloomberg, Coinbase Global Inc., the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, will officially announce on December 17, 2025, its plan to launch its own prediction market and tokenized stocks.
According to Bloomberg, Coinbase is expected to announce the launch of new features—including proprietary tokenized US equities—at its December 17 event. Screenshots of the upcoming application have been circulating on X for weeks, although the company has not officially disclosed…
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) December 12, 2025
Notably, this announcement came shortly after the CFTC stated it would issue “no-action letters” to four major prediction market platforms: Polymarket, PredictIt, Gemini , and LedgerX/MIAX.
- Coinbase is expected to launch a Prediction Market integrated directly into the Coinbase App, allowing users to legally predict real-world events such as elections, FED interest rates, sports, macroeconomic data, or even on-chain data.
- The contracts will be operated internally, ensuring transparency, full collateral, and compliance with the requirements set by the CFTC for Polymarket and Gemini.
Analysts believe Coinbase can leverage its massive US user base and existing legal capacity to quickly surpass fledgling prediction market platforms.
- In parallel with the market prediction, Coinbase will also announce plans to launch Tokenize US stocks directly on the blockchain, giving global investors 24/7 access to US securities, instant settlement, and no intermediary brokers.
Bloomberg reports that these shares will be issued and settled internally by Coinbase, rather than partnering with a third party like offshore Tokenize models (e.g., Robinhood Global or Kraken Europe).
According to rwa.xyz, the trend of Tokenize stocks is booming, with the volume of Tokenize stocks increasing sharply by 32% in the past 30 days, reaching $1.45 billion.
Statistics on the volume of Tokenize stocks over the past 30 days. Source: rwa.xyz (December 12, 2025)
In particular, the betting and prediction market in the US is abuzz with news that President Trump is considering exempting income from this sector from taxes.
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