on-chain, derivatives, and ETF data show mixed gains, despite Bitcoin having a week of recovery from a sharp correction to the mid-$80,000s. Prices bounced and stabilized around $91,000, signaling a “cautious but positive” sentiment. This reflects a market that still lacks consensus and is still rebuilding confidence.
Below is a comprehensive analysis of each key indicator group.
1. Price and Spot Market: Good Recovery Momentum but Selling Pressure Still Present
RSI increased strongly again
The 14-day RSI increased from 38.6 to 58.2 , indicating a significant improvement in price momentum and a return of buying pressure. The indicator remains below the overbought zone, suggesting room for further upside in the short term.
Spot Volume improvement
Spot Volume increased 13.2% to $11.1B .
→ Market liquidation is improving, supporting Bitcoin's recovery.
Spot CVD fell sharply
Spot CVD from -40.8M → -111.7M , meaning sell pressure increased sharply.
→ Despite the price bounce, sellers still dominate, showing that buying power is not strong enough to completely reverse sentiment.
2. Futures: Traders reduce leverage, Derivative market remains cautious
Open Interest slightly decreased
OI drops to $30.6B , below the low band → traders continue to reduce leverage.
Funding rate improvement
Funding increased from $426.9K → $522.7K .
→ Longing opening demand increased slightly, reflecting more positive sentiment from futures.
Perpetual CVD inched up
From -139.3M → -119.1M → futures selling pressure is decreasing.
→ Overall, Derivative show improved sentiment but are still in a defensive state , similar to the stage when the market is probing the Dip.
3. Options: Defensive demand increases, future volatility is undervalued
Options OI is almost flat
Down slightly to $46.3B , within normal range.
Volatility Spread Drops Deeply
Down -14.6% , well below the low band.
→ Options are underpricing volatility — the market underestimates the risk compared to reality, and is susceptible to “shock” if there are strong fluctuations.
High Delta Skew
Up 12.88% , surpassing the high range → downside hedging demand increases sharply.
→ Options traders are more inclined to hedge risk than bet on the upside.
4. ETF: The clearest negative signal – strong cash flow reversal
ETF Netflow Reversal
From inflow +134.2M to outflow -707.3M .
→ Profit-taking pressure or Capital withdrawal psychology from the organization.
ETF trade Volume increases
Up to $22.6B (+21.33%).
→ Despite net withdrawals, the ETF market is more active; traders are restructuring positions.
ETF MVRV increased slightly
Increase to 1.67 → ETF investors are in profit, creating conditions for distribution when price increases.
→ ETF signal set shows: organizations are still hesitant , not ready to return to strong buying.
5. on-chain: Signs of stability returning but not strong yet
Active address increased slightly
Up to 693K , but still near the low range → network activity has just bottomed Dip, not expanded yet.
Transfer Volume increased
From $7.6B → $8.9B , up 17.1%.
→ on-chain throughput improves, reflecting more dynamic Capital flows.
Fee Volume reduction
Down 2.9% to $256K → Block Space demand is still low → trading market is not too active.
→ on-chain data shows a slight recovery , but has not shown any FOMO behavior or large money flows returning.
6. Supply and Capital flow: Short-term investors continue to dominate
Realized Cap Change Drops Sharply
From 1.2% → 0.7%
→ New Capital flow into the market is very weak.
STH/LTH ratio continues to increase
Up to 18.5% , surpassing the high range → Short-term holders increase their weight.
→ This often makes the market volatile.
Hot Capital Share remains high
39.9% → the market is still controlled by “price-sensitive” Capital .
→ The current supply structure shows high speculation and low long-term confidence .
7. Profit – loss: Slight improvement but defensive trend maintained
Percent Supply in Profit increased to 67.3%
But still far from the 90%+ range commonly seen in real Bull markets.
NUPL slightly improved
From -16.3% → -14.6% , but still in negative territory → the market is still "in pain".
Realized P/L Ratio decreased to -0.3
→ Investors continue to sell at a loss instead of taking profits – this is a characteristic of the early recovery stage, when psychology is still weak.
Bitcoin is building a recovery, but caution prevails
Data on December 8 shows a “lighter green” picture than last week:
Positive points:
Price momentum improved significantly
Spot Volume increases
on-chain throughput improvement
Better Futures Funding
Negative points:
Strong negative CVD spot → sell pressure increases
Large ETF outflow → organization exits position
Options hedging increases sharply → traders worry about downside
"Hot" Capital still dominates the market
Bitcoin is in the early stages of recovery , but the market is still very sensitive and there is no large cash flow to lead it.
For the uptrend to be truly sustainable, the return of:
ETF Cash Flow Greater spot liquidation on-chain operations are strong Reduce pressure from Short-term holders
Until these factors align, Bitcoin will remain in a “cautiously bullish” state – slightly rising but vulnerable to new volatility .
What do you think the market will be like next? See you on on-chain 49/2025 on Coinmoi website to XEM how the indexes fluctuate during this time.
The article on-chain week 49/2025: Recovery momentum appears but the market remains cautious appeared first on CoinMoi .
