10x Research warns of Bitcoin weakness ahead of seasonal downturn

Bitcoin is showing signs of weakening below $120,000 as seasonal trends and slowing on-chain inflows raise concerns, according to a report by 10x Research. Lead analyst Markus Thielen noted that August has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest month, with most years posting 5–20% losses. On-chain capital flows are also declining. The 30-day rolling average fell from $62.4 billion to $59.3 billion, signaling a possible consolidation phase, CoinDesk reported. Despite over $1 trillion in total inflows, and $206 billion in 2025 alone, Thielen warned that price impact has been "surprisingly muted" raising doubts about further upside. The report projects a potential breakdown below $117,000, with support at $112,000 and a deeper range around $106,000–$110,000. Thielen added that bulls may still find hope in past August gains during post-halving bull markets like 2013, 2017 and 2021.