PANews reported on July 30 that QCP Capital, a Singapore-based crypto investment institution, stated that Bitcoin remains firmly locked in a narrow range, struggling to break through the $120,000 mark, while continuous buying interest around $116,000 continues to provide support. Ethereum's momentum seems to be waning as it approaches the psychological resistance level of $4,000, with momentum indicators increasingly trending towards neutral. From a structural perspective, continued institutional fund inflows and favorable regulatory dynamics suggest that Bitcoin still has a high probability of reaching new highs in the medium term. Institutional investors like Strategy and SharpLink Gaming are continuously raising funds to purchase Bitcoin, highlighting their long-term confidence in the asset. However, caution is still necessary. The price movement has failed to respond substantially to a series of positive news, including the US passing crypto-friendly regulatory regulations and positive progress in spot and derivative ETFs. Historical experience suggests that market stagnation amid frequent positive news often signals short-term momentum exhaustion. The lack of follow-up to positive news is typical of late-cycle market performance.
At the macro level, the overcrowded short positions on the US dollar pose potential risks. CFTC data shows traders are heavily shorting the US dollar against the Japanese yen, with the dollar depreciating 10% this year. The market is increasingly susceptible to short dollar position covering, which could trigger synchronized sell-offs in risk assets like stocks, emerging markets, and cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, the trade war continues. Attention is now turning to upcoming macro data, especially US inflation and employment figures, which are crucial for determining the third-quarter trend. As tariff impacts gradually transmit to corporate profit margins and consumer prices, the third quarter could become a critical turning point. The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's moves. The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged at the July FOMC meeting, with policymakers likely emphasizing data dependency before the key September meeting, where the possibility of rate cuts remains unclear.
