Starting Wednesday, the cryptocurrency market began to show a clear pullback, driven by ETH's decline. After all, the past nearly two weeks of upward trend was also led by ETH, rising directly from $2,500 at the beginning of the month to over $3,800, with Altcoins also showing significant gains, creating an optimistic market sentiment.
VX：TZ7971
The market's clear pullback on Wednesday was a "correction after a rise", and then the US published better-than-expected economic data, dampening rate cut expectations. Additionally, Galaxy Digital selling 80,000 Bitcoin instantly caused Bitcoin to drop below $115,000, pushing the cryptocurrency market into a low-level oscillation.
Bitcoin's daily line briefly fell below the short-term trend line during Galaxy Digital's Bitcoin sell-off but recovered the next day. Currently, if Bitcoin's daily line does not break below the $112,000 super trend line, the market may maintain its previous upward momentum. However, Bitcoin has now failed to stabilize at $120,000 three times, and if it continues to oscillate in the current range, the probability of a significant price pullback will increase.
If effectively breaking below the $112,000 support level, a short-term downward trend will be confirmed. If strongly breaking through the $118,000 resistance zone, it may trigger large-scale short seller stop-loss liquidations, driving a rapid price surge.
Currently, it is not advisable to heavily bet on a single direction. Pulling back and repositioning is the most stable strategy. A sudden macroeconomic positive news, a whale's complete liquidation, or a concentrated liquidation could be the fuse for the next market trend.
US Multiple Economic Data and Fed Meeting, Expected Significant Market Fluctuations
The last week of July is quite exciting, with the US publishing important economic data almost every day. The most eye-catching Federal Reserve meeting results will be announced early Thursday morning, and Powell will also give a speech about economic policy. Recently, Trump has been urging him to cut rates almost daily. With the market's strong expectation of a rate cut, whether he will soften his stance and hint at a September rate cut is a market focus.
The impact of tariff issues that previously influenced the market is declining. Although August 1st is the latest negotiation deadline, most key countries have nearly reached an agreement in the past month. Additionally, Trump always extends the deadline, so the market is no longer worried about tariff talks falling through. Therefore, this week's focus is mainly on the Federal Reserve's meeting results.
The approach is still to enter during pullbacks, avoiding chasing highs recently. Those with profits can withdraw after gaining 20-30 points.
Important macroeconomic data to be announced next week are as follows:
Wednesday 20:15, US July ADP Employment (10,000 people), expected 7.5, previous value -3.5;
Wednesday 00:00, Central Committee Political Bureau Member and Vice Premier He Lifeng will conduct economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27 to 30;
Thursday 02:00, Federal Reserve FOMC to announce interest rate resolution;
Thursday 02:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to hold monetary policy press conference;
Thursday 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 26 (10,000 people), previous value 21.7;
Thursday 20:30, US June Core PCE Price Index Year-on-Year, expected 2.70%, previous value 2.70%;
Friday, Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulations take effect;
Friday 20:30, US July Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Employment (10,000 people), expected 10.2, previous value 14.7;
Friday 22:00, US July ISM Manufacturing PMI, expected 49.6, previous value 49;
Friday 22:00, US July University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Final Value, previous value 61.8.
