Recently, with the launch of the "US Cryptocurrency Week", retail leverage activity quickly rebounded, media attention simultaneously heated up, driving BTC and Altcoins to comprehensively strengthen. However, as positive factors peak, market indicators gradually transition to consolidation. Data shows that BTC price dropped 0.6% in the past week. From a technical perspective, technical reversal indicators show that BTC and ETH are not only in an overbought state but also face correction risks, and the market heat brought by the "US Cryptocurrency Week" may have reached a momentum peak. Overall, this round of consolidation may continue until August.
1
The White House has postponed the originally scheduled cryptocurrency report from July 22 to July 30, which was originally planned to be completed within 180 days. The market previously anticipated that the report might involve preliminary discussions of BTC as a reserve strategy. However, given that the report's release is close to the congressional summer recess, current policy expectations should be lowered: the report is highly unlikely to provide any substantive or actionable policy guidance.
The report's delay also indirectly reflects that the government's current work focus has shifted to the "GENIUS Act" centered on stablecoins. The core of this act is to support the issuance of USD-denominated stablecoins backed by US Treasury bonds, thereby providing a new financing path for US government debt. This framework not only provides a strategic tool for creating government debt demand but also further highlights the status and significance of digital asset regulation in the macro financial system.
2
As the market enters a relatively calm summer phase, coupled with the approaching seasonal market closure, it is not ruled out that more traders may choose to reduce positions or close part of their positions. Currently, many long positions in the market are relatively large, and if subsequent trends lack sustained upward momentum, investor confidence may gradually weaken, especially under the current background of rising fund interest rates and increasing holding costs.
This trend is particularly evident in ETH: its total outstanding contract scale has jumped from $1.4 billion to $2.5 billion. Although the funding rate has only slightly increased, it is expected to decline during the summer, which may trigger further position reduction.
3
$122,000 is the key price for BTC's current price trend. With multiple technical reversal signals appearing simultaneously, turning to a more cautious and contrarian strategy judgment is not unwise. Meanwhile, as the market maintains a strong posture, some early investors have begun to take profits, with selling pressure increasing. The market is highly likely to enter a summer consolidation phase.
Disclaimer: Markets are risky, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve extreme risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
