Bitcoin is showing signs of entering a strong price cycle based on On-chain data, as the supply is quietly surging after a long period of silence.
Data from On-chain expert Axel Adler Jr. indicates that the amount of Bitcoin over the past 180 days is moving more, signaling the possibility that holders will begin to make large transactions, opening up a potential new price cycle.
- The active supply rate of Bitcoin in the past 180 days is increasing, activating the "awakening" of coin supply.
- History shows that sudden increases in active supply are always accompanied by strong price increases of Bitcoin.
- The market is still in the early stage of the distribution cycle, with the active supply rate only slightly increasing, opening up the possibility of pushing the price above $120,000.
How Significant is the Increase in Bitcoin Supply?
Axel Adler Jr., a certified On-chain analyst, confirms that the rate of Bitcoin supply traded in the past 180 days is increasing strongly. This is a sign that many long-term Bitcoins are starting to move again.
This data typically reflects long-term holders beginning to sell or reallocate assets as prices rise. This surge in active supply was previously clearly visible at times when cryptocurrencies reached peaks in previous major cycles.
Previously, there were two instances of this active supply rate jumping, first increasing to 20% when Bitcoin reached around $70,000 in spring 2024, and the second touching 18% in December 2024 when the price crossed the psychological threshold of $100,000 for the first time.
Bitcoin "% Supply Active had two notable sudden increases: 20% in spring 2024 and 18% in December 2024 – two moments when Bitcoin's price reached new milestones."
Axel Adler Jr., Crypto Analyst, July 2025
Why is the Active Supply Trend Important for the Bitcoin Market?
History has proven that periods of sudden increases in active supply are often accompanied by Bitcoin price corrections or strong price increases. For example, in spring 2024, the 20% increase in active supply was accompanied by the price jumping to around $70,000.
At the end of 2024, when Bitcoin crossed the psychological threshold of $100,000, this rate also increased to 18%, indicating trading activity from large holders and profit distribution.
However, in June 2025, despite Bitcoin's price stabilizing around $100,000, the active supply rate has only slightly increased, about +2.4% in the past 30 days, showing that many holders are still maintaining a long-term holding strategy and have not rushed to sell.
How is Bitcoin in the Initial Distribution Stage?
Axel Adler Jr. notes that the slight increase in active supply rate emphasizes that the cryptocurrency market is still in the early stage of the distribution cycle when Bitcoin has not yet completely broken through above $120,000.
If Bitcoin continues to maintain and exceed this threshold, the active supply rate could increase from 8%–10%, moving closer to the 18%–20% previously reached during major price increases.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $118,176 with a market capitalization of approximately $2.35 trillion, ready for further fluctuations.
"The slight increase in active supply indicates that Bitcoin is just beginning to enter the distribution stage, paving the way for potential upward momentum beyond $120,000."
Axel Adler Jr., On-chain Expert, July 2025
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Bitcoin Supply Active?
Bitcoin Supply Active is the percentage of supply traded in the past 180 days, reflecting the activity level of coins after a long holding period.
Why is the Increase in Active Supply Important?
The increase in active supply indicates that long-term holders tend to sell or distribute assets, directly affecting Bitcoin's price.
How Much Can Bitcoin Increase Based on Current Active Supply?
On-chain data suggests that active supply could push Bitcoin beyond $120,000 if the upward trend continues and expands the transaction scope.
How Does the Current Active Supply Trend Compare to Previous Cycles?
Compared to price increase cycles in the past, the active supply rate in summer 2025 has only slightly increased, indicating that the market has not yet entered a strong distribution phase.
How to Track Bitcoin's Active Supply Signals?
On-chain analysis platforms like CryptoQuant provide Supply Active charts to help investors orient their trading strategies based on real data.
