BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, in his latest long-form article 《Time Signature》, uses dance rhythm as a metaphor to analyze how the U.S. financial market is about to enter a wartime economic mode. He believes that the United States is driving bubbles towards cryptocurrency through government-led credit expansion and stablecoin reserve mechanisms, finding a way out for massive deficits, and pushing BTC and ETH towards the largest opportunity wave in history.
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ToggleFinancial Market is a Dance, Only Those Who Step to the Beat Can Profit
Hayes first uses musical rhythm to metaphorize the operating logic of financial markets, emphasizing that dancing requires stepping to the beat, and investing must follow the "credit creation" drumbeat of financial markets. The expansion of fiat currency supply is the fundamental rhythm determining asset prices, and in the fixed-supply BTC and ETH systems, this rhythm will be amplified into intense price changes:
The most important variable for profitable trading is understanding how fiat currency supply changes. Especially for assets with fixed supply like BTC, the speed of fiat currency supply expansion determines the speed of BTC price appreciation.
He believes that "credit creation" is not just a macroeconomic term, but also a quantifiable entry signal.
U.S. Economic Model Must Shift: From Free Market to Fascist Economic Ideology
Hayes points out that facing escalating geopolitical confrontations (U.S.-China conflict, Middle East and Russia-Ukraine regions) and imbalances in U.S. economic and debt structures, the U.S. must and is transforming from a "free market" and "semi-capitalist" model to a hybrid system combining government-led and market-operated approaches, which is "state capitalism":
This is a model where the government leads credit distribution and industrial resource allocation, or in harsher terms, a "fascist economic system".
He uses MP Materials as an example, where the U.S. Department of Defense becomes the largest shareholder and guarantees purchase volume, attracting giants like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs to provide massive loans for factory expansion. Funds subsequently flow to workers, driving consumption and tax revenue, forming an economic expansion "authorized and led by the state".
This case explains how the U.S. government intervenes and guides fund flow to promote an economic growth mechanism that appears market-driven but is actually state-led.
New Anti-Inflation Strategy: U.S. Government Blows Bubble Towards Crypto Market
It's not hard to imagine that this approach will bring inevitable severe inflation. However, Hayes believes the U.S. government will choose to blow this bubble to "people who won't rebel", similar to how China previously directed funds towards real estate. For the U.S., "cryptocurrency" will become the new bubble carrier:
Crypto investors are younger, often minorities, with strong political participation awareness
If this group becomes wealthy through crypto, they may become a potential voter base for the ruling party (Republicans)
Crypto investments mostly enter through stablecoins, which in turn are reserved by U.S. Treasury bonds, effectively becoming a U.S. bond fund pool
The logic is: "Printed money flows into cryptocurrency → Investors buy stablecoins → Stablecoin minting buys U.S. Treasuries → National debt finds buyers → Inflation pressure bubble shifts to crypto market".
Hayes Embraces Bubble and Goes Long Entirely: BTC 250K, ETH 10K
Hayes believes the leader of this fund dance will be Ethereum and its DeFi ecosystem. He states that his fund Maelstrom has fully re-weighted towards ETH and other core DeFi protocols, and he has made price predictions for BTC and ETH by year-end:
BTC: $250,000
ETH: $10,000
Total crypto market cap could reach $100 trillion
He emphasizes that now it's better to embrace inflation than oppose it, and institutional funds will be a key driver, especially with retirement funds like 401(k) planning to allocate crypto assets, and even the potential for Trump to eliminate capital gains tax on cryptocurrencies, which could accelerate fund inflow.
Hayes states: "On average, for every $1 increase in crypto market cap, $0.09 flows into stablecoins. Assuming Trump does his best, he might push the market cap to $100 trillion before leaving office in 2028, which is about 25 times the current size."
If you think this is impossible, you haven't been in the cryptocurrency space long enough. This global capital inflow will create the purchasing power of trillions of US dollars in stablecoin issuers.
Risk Warning
Cryptocurrency investment carries high risks, and its price may fluctuate dramatically. You may lose all your principal. Please carefully assess the risks.
Solana ecosystem's popular meme coin Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) experienced a strong surge on July 23rd, with its price skyrocketing over 20% in a single day. Behind this rally, several key drivers emerged: Binance Futures opening a 75x leverage perpetual contract, a simultaneous surge in Non-Fungible Token floor prices, and technical breakthrough signals all contributed to this trend. PENGU not only saw price heating up but the entire ecosystem rapidly warmed up, attracting significant attention and investment funds.
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ToggleBinance Launches 75x Leverage Contract, Igniting Market Enthusiasm
On July 23rd at 07:30 UTC, Binance Futures officially listed PENGUUSDC perpetual contract, offering up to 75x leverage and supporting multi-asset collateral. This move immediately sparked market interest, with PENGU's trading volume surging 56.5% to $2.75 billion within 24 hours.
This not only injected new vitality into the spot market but also allowed derivatives traders to easily enter. Historical experience shows that for meme coins with dramatic volatility, futures market liquidity is often a catalyst for price explosions.
Non-Fungible Token Prices Simultaneously Surge, Suplay Collaboration Adds Fuel
Beyond the derivatives market explosion, PENGU's NFT ecosystem is also noteworthy. Data shows Pudgy Penguins' Non-Fungible Token floor price rose 13% to 16.57 ETH (approximately $63,150), with sales volume skyrocketing 380% to 24 transactions in 24 hours.
Technical Perspective Bullish: Key Pressure Level Breakthrough, Strong Momentum
From the technical chart, PENGU successfully broke through the critical resistance level of $0.032 and approached the previous high of $0.0344. Its daily RSI indicator reached 75.39, indicating extremely strong buying pressure. Over the past 30 days, PENGU accumulated a 411% increase, with a stunning 609% rise in 90 days, proving this is not a fleeting moment but a sustained upward trend.
Future Market Outlook: Can It Challenge $0.045? Non-Fungible Token Trend is Key
PENGU's current upward momentum is driven by two engines: futures leveraged trading and Non-Fungible Token sales. The next key resistance zone is between $0.038 and $0.045, and a successful breakthrough could potentially launch a new wave of growth.
However, the market must also note: if Non-Fungible Token trading enthusiasm cools or macroeconomic changes occur, whether PENGU can maintain its leading position in Ethereum Non-Fungible Token projects will be a significant challenge.
Risk Warning
Cryptocurrency investment carries high risks, and its price may fluctuate dramatically. You may lose all your principal. Please carefully assess the risks.
