Translated by: Top.one

Original: Coingecko 2025 Q2 Crypto Industry Report

Behind a $3.5 trillion market cap rebound, Bitcoin devours 62% of capital share, while centralized exchange spot trading volume plummets 27.7%, and PancakeSwap's single-quarter growth of 539% is quietly reshaping the industry landscape.

In the second quarter of 2025, the cryptocurrency market declared a strong recovery with a 24% market cap growth, with a total valuation of $3.5 trillion just a step away from the year's initial high. However, the latest industry report released by CoinGecko reveals a fragmented and contradictory market landscape - while Bitcoin breaks through $110,000 to create a new historical high, Altcoins are deeply trapped in capital outflow; when Circle's stock price surged 864% on its first day of listing, triggering market frenzy, centralized exchange spot trading volume has been shrinking for two consecutive quarters; meanwhile, DEX is quietly launching a trading behavior revolution with a 25.3% trading volume increase and a historical high DEX:CEX ratio of 0.23.

This article relies on CoinGecko's latest 2025 Q2 crypto industry report to deeply interpret industry trends, penetrating the appearance of market recovery, and deeply analyzes the silent industry structural reconstruction from three dimensions: capital flow, platform changes, and regulatory breakthroughs, revealing key opportunities and risks for investors in the second half of 2025.

I. The Appearance and Cracks of Market Recovery: Structural Changes Behind the Data

From surface numbers, Q2 2025 is undoubtedly a victorious quarter for the crypto market: total market cap surged by $663.6 billion in a single quarter, successfully recovering all losses from Q1. Bitcoin rose from $83,000 to $111,900, with a quarterly increase of 28%, becoming the core engine driving market sentiment. More notably, Circle successfully listed on the New York Stock Exchange on June 5th, with its stock price soaring from $31 to $299, creating an 864.5% increase, becoming the first milestone IPO in the crypto field in 2025.

But beneath the prosperity, three structural cracks are hidden:

• Divergence between Trading Volume and Market Cap: Despite the significant market cap recovery, centralized exchange (CEX) spot trading volume plummeted 27.7% quarter-on-quarter, dropping to $3.9 trillion. This is the second consecutive quarter of decline, with daily average trading volume shrinking to $10.78 billion, down 26.2% from its peak4. Market activity failed to match price recovery.

• Intensified Capital Centralization: BTC market dominance surged from 59.1% to 62.1%, a new high since 2021. While capital frantically flows into BTC, Altcoins collectively experience blood loss, with the market cap proportion of "other" token categories shrinking by 2 percentage points to 13.7%.

• Exchange Landscape Reshuffling: While Binance maintains 37%-39% spot market share, its trading volume dropped below $50 billion twice in April and June. MEXC and HTX replaced Crypto.com and Bybit to enter the top three, with Crypto.com's trading volume plummeting 61.4%, falling from a top exchange to eighth place.

This historical divergence between market cap and trading volume reflects the fragile nature of the current recovery - institutional funds push up asset prices through compliant channels like ETFs, but retail investors have not yet returned en masse15.

1. Circle's IPO and the Crypto IPO Wave: Circle (CRCL)'s NYSE IPO is not only a symbol of recognition from traditional capital markets, but also triggers an IPO wave for crypto companies. Its initial price was $31, closing at $83.23 on the first day, and soaring to $298.99 on June 23rd, with a 864.5% surge creating a tech stock myth. This performance directly boosted market expectations for potential IPO projects like Kraken, Gemini, and Grayscale.

2. L1 Competitive Landscape Reconstruction: Although Ethereum's price performance is weak, its on-chain fundamentals continue to improve—Q2 daily transaction volume increased to 1.3 million (120,000 in Q1), with Gas fees dropping to 3.5 Gwei (6.9 Gwei in Q1). Meanwhile, the Thai government announced the issuance of $150 million "G-Tokens" digital bonds, becoming the first case of a sovereign nation issuing on-chain bonds.

3. Asian Regulatory Differentiation Breakthrough:

   • Hong Kong will implement stablecoin legislation on August 1st, with the first batch of regulated stablecoins expected in Q4;

   • Vietnam's National Assembly passed the Digital Technology Industry Law, achieving a historic transformation from crypto currency ban to full legalization;

   • Thailand's SEC relaxed utility token listing rules, promoting digital asset innovation led by the government.

These breakthrough developments indicate that the crypto ecosystem is moving from marginal innovation to mainstream financial infrastructure, with compliance and institutionalization becoming an irreversible trend.

V. 2025 Second Half Outlook: Four Key Variables and Investment Strategies

Based on Q2 data trajectory and macro environment, we believe the market will revolve around four key variables:

1. Interest Rate Cycle and Liquidity: If the Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening, global liquidity expansion will directly support crypto market valuations. However, if trade friction escalates or geopolitical conflicts intensify, risk-averse sentiment may further push Bitcoin's market dominance to over 65%.

2. ETF Phase II Effect: Bitcoin ETF has accumulated $125 billion in assets under management. If Ethereum ETF is approved in Q3, it may introduce incremental funds for Altcoins. But caution is needed as relaxed access restrictions by major brokerages may cause demand fluctuations.

3. DEX Innovation Tipping Point: After the DEX:CEX ratio breaks through the historical peak of 0.23, order book DEX, cross-chain settlement, and other new models may disrupt the derivatives market landscape. Native DEX platforms like Hyperliquid may challenge the status of second-tier CEXs like Bybit and Bitget.

4. Political Token Wave: As the US election approaches, PolitiFi narrative may reignite. But beware of Rug Pull risks similar to LIBRA (promoted by Argentine President Milei)—the project collapsed from a $4.6 billion market cap to $221 million, causing Pump.fun's new coin issuance to plummet by 56.3%.

Core recommendations for investors:

• Steady and Innovative Allocation: Core position (BTC+ETH) should not be less than 60%, using stablecoin funds to participate in narrative rotation (such as AI, RWA, DePIN).

• Exchange Migration Strategy: Transfer over 50% of spot assets to platforms with reserve ratios exceeding 100% or non-custodial wallets, prioritizing exchanges supporting Proof of Reserves.

• Focus on Regulatory Dividends: Prioritize Hong Kong licensed exchanges, Thailand G-Tokens related projects, and Vietnam compliant entry points, avoiding high-risk platforms in Singapore.

Conclusion: Finding a New Balance in Structural Transformation

The crypto market recovery in 2025 Q2 is essentially a structural transformation shaped by institutional funds, accelerated compliance process, and trading architecture migration. Bitcoin's hegemony is not only a reflection of risk-averse demand but also an inevitable product of the market's transition from wild growth to institutional maturity.

When Circle rings the bell at the NYSE, when the Thai government issues on-chain bonds, when Hong Kong issues the first stablecoin licenses, we see not just a quarterly data rebound, but a coming of age for an emerging industry integrating into the global financial system. Those innovators who created 539% growth on the DEX battlefield and those who maintained 126% reserve rates during the CEX winter are accumulating true energy for the next comprehensive bull market—because ultimately, trust is the scarcest asset in the cryptocurrency world.