Bitcoin is close to reaching an all-time high, but the capital flow into Binance has dropped to its lowest level in the cycle, showing the resilience of long-term holders.
Despite the sharp decline in capital flow into the largest exchange Binance, creating a positive sign for long-term investors, indicators such as liquidation and leverage ratios warn of potential significant short-term volatility.
- Bitcoin capital flow into Binance has dropped to a record low in the current cycle, demonstrating the strength of long-term holders.
- High leverage in the derivative market signals significant short-term price volatility risks.
- Stablecoin outflow from the exchange reduces buying power, negatively impacting the natural growth potential of the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin Near ATH, But Why Is Capital Flow into Binance Decreasing?
Based on Darkfost's analysis from CryptoQuant, the amount of Bitcoin flowing into Binance has deeply dropped to the lowest level in the current cycle, despite BTC price nearly touching $111,970 on 09/07/2025. This is a sign that whales and large investors are not showing significant selling movements, demonstrating strong confidence in the long-term trend.
The sharp decrease in Bitcoin entering the largest exchange shows that holders are firmly holding their assets, preparing for the market's next move.
Darkfost, CryptoQuant Analyst, 09/07/2025
Statistical data shows that the average Bitcoin capital flow into Binance is only 3,190 BTC/day, much lower than the May average of 5,390 BTC, typically meaning investors do not want to sell. Conversely, derivative liquidation surged with $229.28 million liquidated in the past 24 hours, with nearly $7.8 million short positions liquidated in just one minute on Binance, proving a strong short squeeze effect.
Will the Cryptocurrency Market Explode or Move Sideways?
The liquidation heatmap shows the $110,000 price zone was recently cleared of liquidity, while the $112,600 zone is also attractive to capital flow and may continue to attract traders soon. According to Coinglass's report, recent liquidation pressure has created characteristic short-term fluctuations in the Bitcoin market.
According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin's estimated leverage ratio has continuously increased since April, especially bursting strongly in early July when BTC tested the $108,000 threshold. This reflects the high-risk appetite of investors in the derivative market, potentially leading to similar liquidation squeeze periods.
The increase in leverage combined with easily "swept" liquidation creates a highly volatile trading environment, requiring investors to be extremely vigilant.
Phil Smith, Market Strategy Director, CryptoQuant, 07/2025
Stablecoin outflow from exchanges has continued for 14 consecutive days, according to CryptoQuant, reducing buying power on cryptocurrency exchanges. This warns that the market is not ready for a natural price increase, requiring investors to monitor closely. The contrast between holders' reluctance to sell and the lack of new funds further reinforces the potential for significant short-term volatility.
Advice for Long-Term Investors and Short-Term Traders?
While capital flow turnover data is positive for long-term holders, it signals high volatility risks in the derivative market for short-term traders. Experts emphasize the importance of patience and caution during this period. Investors should focus on risk management and not be swept up by strong liquidation waves and high leverage.
| Indicator | Current Status | Meaning for Investors |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Capital Flow into Binance | Dropped to 3,190 BTC/day (cycle low) | Holders remain steady, minimal selling |
| Estimated Leverage Ratio | Strongly increased since April, burst in July | High short-term volatility risk |
| Stablecoin Outflow from Exchanges | Negative flow for 14 consecutive days | Reduced buying power, hindering market growth |
Frequently Asked Questions
- Why is the decrease in Bitcoin capital flow into Binance positive?
This shows that large investors and whales do not want to sell, indicating long-term confidence in Bitcoin. - How does high leverage affect the market?
High leverage creates easily swept liquidation, causing significant volatility and increasing risks for short-term traders. - What does stablecoin outflow from exchanges mean?
Decreased stablecoin flow on exchanges reduces buying power, making it difficult for the market to sustain growth. - What should traders do during this volatile period?
Traders need to manage risks strictly and avoid excessive trading when the market is highly volatile. - How should long-term holders act?
They should remain patient and not panic sell during significant price fluctuations triggered by liquidation signals.
