PANews reported on July 5th that the market focus over the past week was primarily on the United States, with almost daily historical highs across various indices, displaying an extremely euphoric sentiment. Notably, asset management companies' bullish sentiment towards US stocks is increasingly rising, and market sentiment may be somewhat overly excited. This could lead to overly concentrated positions, and market volatility might intensify if negative news emerges, such as the tariff deadline set by Trump on July 9th. Looking ahead to next week, traders will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes, the latest statements from FOMC voters, and the latest progress in Trump's tariff negotiations. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:
Tuesday at 23:00, US June New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations;
Wednesday at 09:30, China's June CPI year-on-year rate;
Thursday at 02:00, Federal Reserve to publish monetary policy meeting minutes;
Thursday at 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5th;
Thursday at 21:00, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem to speak on the US economy and monetary policy;
Friday at 02:30, 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daley to speak on US economic prospects.
After the significantly better-than-expected non-farm employment report this week, US data will enter a relatively quiet period next week. According to LSEG data, the market now believes there is only a 4% chance of a Fed rate cut in July, and it will not be fully priced in until October. Investors will pay attention to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index to be released next Tuesday and the initial jobless claims data to be published next Thursday to seek the latest clues about the labor market.
