Author: Jessy, Jinse Finance
Original Title: Bitcoin Rises Again Above $110,000 - Bull Market Return?
On July 3rd Eastern Time, positive macroeconomic factors emerged in the US, with the "Big and Beautiful" bill passing the House of Representatives; non-farm employment data exceeded expectations, with the June unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1%. Multiple economic indicators performed excellently, such as the US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 50.8, higher than the expected 50.5, with a previous value of 49.9. The US June ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index was 51.3, also higher than the expected 48.2, with a previous value of 46.4. Additionally, US industrial orders in May increased by 8.2% month-on-month, the largest increase since 2014; US May factory orders excluding defense rose 7.5%, significantly higher than the previous -4.2%.
Stimulated by these positive macroeconomic news, the three major stock indices opened high and closed up across the board. Bitcoin also rose above $110,000 again. Voices of "bull market return" and "targeting $200,000 by year-end" have resurged. Is massive liquidity truly coming? Can crypto assets capture this windfall?
US Economic Strong Recovery, Rate Cut Expectations Temporarily Cool Down
This year, most expected the Federal Reserve to start rate cuts in July or September. However, the latest series of economic data indicates that the US economy remains resilient and has not yet entered a stage where rate cuts are absolutely necessary.
June non-farm employment added 147,000 jobs, higher than the market expectation of 110,000, showing that corporate hiring remains active. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, a moderate decline that suggests the labor market has not weakened. Particularly, the significant surge in industrial orders and new order indices indicates a recovery in US manufacturing. Meanwhile, fiscal stimulus expectations are increasing, with the Stablecoin Bill and "Big and Beautiful" tax plan potentially releasing liquidity.
Although current US long-term inflation expectations remain anchored at 2%, the Federal Reserve believes trade policies still have high uncertainty, and tariff policies might raise import prices, with potential "second-round effects" that could prolong price pressures and intensify short-term inflation.
The Federal Reserve's concerns about short-term inflation and the demonstration of economic resilience have lowered the expectation of a July rate cut. However, a September rate cut remains a high-probability event. First, Trump has repeatedly pressured the Federal Reserve, emphasizing that high interest rates lead to excessive US debt interest burden, stating "each 1% increase means an additional $200 billion in annual interest payments" and demanding rate cuts to 1-2% to save fiscal expenditure. He also declared that if no rate cut occurs before September, he will push Congress to legislate to weaken the Federal Reserve's decision-making power. Under Trump's pressure, the market still holds high expectations for a September rate cut. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in September is only 4.9%.
Although June's non-farm employment data exceeded expectations, government job positions abnormally surged in June, accounting for nearly half of new employment, contradicting Trump's "government streamlining" policy and raising suspicions of artificially beautifying data. If employment data is not as strong as it appears, economic pressure might be greater than surface-level, which would increase the likelihood of a September rate cut.
Moreover, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated on July 1st that "rate cuts would have occurred if not for tariff policies". Treasury Secretary Bessen also mentioned that "if no rate cut in July, the September cut might be larger". The market interprets these as the Federal Reserve "signaling" a September rate cut.
While July rate cut probability is low, a September rate cut remains highly likely. For Bitcoin and the crypto market, there won't be aggressive liquidity release in the short term, but being in a rate cut cycle means the bull market rhythm remains uninterrupted.
Will Bitcoin Reach $200,000 by Year-End?
In the current bull market rhythm, Nasdaq has already reached new highs. Bitcoin is oscillating around the $110,000 mark. Will Bitcoin truly reach $200,000 by year-end as everyone expects?
Bitcoin is no longer a retail investor's game; institutions are now driving this bull market. According to Bitcoin Treasuries data, as of July 4th, 2025, 255 entities hold Bitcoin, with approximately 3.562 million BTC, equivalent to 16.96% of the total 21 million issued.
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Regarding Bitcoin spot ETFs, by the end of June, 11 US Bitcoin spot ETFs collectively held over 1.2 million BTC, about 6% of global supply, making Bitcoin increasingly scarce on exchanges. CryptoQuant data shows that centralized exchange Bitcoin reserves have dropped to just 2.44 million by early July - the lowest since 2018, indicating more investors choose long-term holding over circulation. ETF inflows and institutions viewing Bitcoin as digital gold suggest Bitcoin might replicate gold's price trajectory after spot ETF introduction.
Technically, Bitcoin has repeatedly tested and found support around the $105,000 area, with daily and weekly charts in upward channels. Breaking the $118,000-$120,000 resistance could target the $135,000-$150,000 region.
Bitcoin's continued upward channel appears open, though geopolitical conflicts or macro black swan events should be cautioned.
As expectations for Bitcoin's rise continue, is the "Altcoin season" approaching?
The author believes some independent Altcoins might see price increases, but a widespread surge is unlikely to be replicated. Currently, US stocks on-chain is trending, with exchanges competing to launch RWA products, such as XStocks already listed on Bybit, Bitget, Kraken, Gate, and Solana DeFi products.
With numerous new attractions competing for funds and attention, most Altcoins likely have no comeback in this bull market.
In other words, a wild bull market is unlikely to reappear. This bull market seems more like a slow liquidity release and continuous institutional positioning. Overall, Bitcoin's return to $110,000 is a result of multiple positive factors, with this market potentially moving more slowly and diversely. For investors, earning money in this cycle requires strong macroeconomic trend judgment.
