Article source: Talk Li Talk Outside
Yesterday (Beijing time, June 22), as US President Trump announced the completion of an airstrike on Iran's underground nuclear facilities, the Middle East situation further escalated, and leaders playing with "fire" also caused the crypto market to drop, with Bitcoin dropping to around $98,000 and Ethereum dropping to around $2,100.
While leaders were playing with "fire", they also burned many people's positions. According to on-chain data, in just 24 hours, the total liquidation funds exceeded $640 million, with long positions liquidation reaching $512 million, as shown in the following image.
Geopolitics once again became a catalyst for deleveraging. Although we have known since childhood that playing with "fire" is wrong, we cannot control what those above us want to do or obtain insider information. Therefore, the only thing we can do is to hope for world peace in our hearts and manage our positions well in this complex "game" of geopolitical negotiations, market structure changes, and macroeconomic expectations while finding suitable trading opportunities.
Regarding market structure changes, I remember discussing the differences between this cycle's Bitcoin and Altcoin season in an article on March 13. Simply put, we have been following the existing historical cycle patterns while continuously witnessing some new differences or new history.
For some time, due to the overlay of some macroeconomic factors, Bitcoin's structure seems to have decoupled from the Altcoin structure. Therefore, our investment strategy should be executed with two separate plans: investment plans for Bitcoin and Altcoins can no longer be mixed.
1) For Bitcoin
Unless you enjoy scalping trades, our recommendation has always been to make long-term plans. Here's a simple strategy:
For example, using EMA21 and EMA55 indicators, when EMA21 crosses above EMA55 from below, it can be considered a bullish signal (bull market confirmation). When Bitcoin's price touches above EMA21, it's a good entry point, as shown in the following image.
From the current trend, if Bitcoin has the opportunity to callback to around $94,000-$96,000, it would still be a good stage for accumulation. At the same time, as long as Bitcoin's price can maintain above $84,000 (above EMA55), the Bitcoin bull market structure can still be considered valid.
2) For Altcoins
In the previous article (March 13), we redefined the Altcoin season as a mini Altcoin season, suggesting that we can hardly see a traditional Altcoin season. From this cycle, our so-called Altcoin season seems to have been replaced by rapid rises and falls of sector-specific seasons like MemeCoin Season, Trump Season, AI Season, etc., unless there is a fundamental change in liquidity, i.e., massive new liquidity enters the crypto market to support all Altcoins surging together.
Therefore, we need to further subdivide the strategy for Altcoins, such as:
For top large-cap Altcoins, although these coins may no longer satisfy people's fantasies of ten or even hundred-fold returns, such Altcoins will still have opportunities to improve with the development of the crypto field. In the short to medium term, if Bitcoin's dominance can be reversed, the probability of such tokens rebounding will be relatively high.
As for how to find top Altcoins, it's actually simple. Besides well-known coins like ETH, SOL, and BNB, you can directly use platforms like CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko and discover through their Categories column - finding large-cap coins ranked at the top in each subdivision (track), while also paying attention to the project's tokenomics, such as distribution and unlock issues. For example, TAO in the AI category, HYPE in the DeFi category, DOGE in the Meme category, etc., as shown in the following image.
As for discovering opportunities for small-cap Altcoins or on-chain meme projects (high multiple returns or quick zero), we have listed many methods and tools in last year's (2024) e-book "Blockchain Methodology". Interested friends can review the historical articles, so we won't discuss it further here.
In summary, besides investing in Bitcoin, if you want stability in Altcoins, focus on discovering projects with strong fundamentals - projects that can continuously generate revenue, have good tokenomics, can continuously build, and have development vision. The simplest method is to select directly from the top 100 market cap (if your risk appetite is low, you can also focus only on projects ranked in the top 30).
Additionally, with the US stablecoin bill's advancement, Circle's impressive performance after listing on the NYSE (and multiple crypto companies announcing IPO plans)... some friends have fallen into new doubts: Has the long-awaited Altcoin season disappeared into the stock market? Have they been playing Web3 only to find the real Web3 is actually in the stock market next door? Since many crypto people missed this opportunity, I've noticed some friends have started turning to the stock market. As for whether to simultaneously play in the stock market, it still depends on individual circumstances.
After clarifying the investment directions for Bitcoin and Altcoins, the next step is to develop specific trading strategies, with the core being position management.
What is position management?
Position management refers to reasonably allocating the proportion of funds invested in trading or investment to control risk, protect principal, and improve returns. In simple terms, you need to clearly plan your funds, including how many parts your investment will be divided into, how much money you'll invest in each trade, and the maximum loss you can bear... to avoid liquidation or significant losses due to one or several mistakes.
Specifically for fund allocation, this might also be divided into several situations, such as:
If your investment field is broad, covering cryptocurrencies, US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, gold, etc., you might need to allocate different fund percentages to different fields, and then further subdivide within each field. However, our recommendation has always been not to spread too thin, and it's best to maintain focus and depth in 1-2 fields unless your personal fund size and time and energy are sufficient to cover more fields.
If you focus solely on the crypto market, you can simply segment based on personal goals and risk appetite. Here, we will only discuss the crypto market. Taking a simple example (relatively low-risk), such as spot trading, you can divide your funds into 10 equal parts, with a 6:2:2 ratio: 6 parts for long-term BTC investment, 2 parts for short to medium-term Altcoin trading plans, and 2 parts in USDC or USDT (maintaining necessary liquidity). Apart from BTC as a long-term plan, avoid going too deep into any Altcoins (unless you are extremely bullish on a specific Altcoin's future, otherwise just trade and not hold permanently), and try to limit the number of simultaneously held coins to 10 or fewer. In essence, this means always maintaining stable and simple positions, being defensive when needed and offensive when possible. After planning the fund allocation, the next step is to execute specific trading operations (buying and selling) based on your goals. For Bitcoin trading, if you can maintain sufficient patience, the probability of losing money is relatively low. As we mentioned in our article a few days ago (June 18th): If you haven't made money during the past 600+ days of the bull market, or you initially made money but then lost it, you should carefully think about and optimize your future trading strategy. Don't try to predict the exact top during a bull market; the most important thing is to seize appropriate opportunities for staged profit-taking, rather than always aiming for a perfect top-selling point. If you firmly believe in Bitcoin's long-term narrative, simply expanding your investment cycle and avoiding unnecessary actions will likely reduce the probability of losses. As for Altcoins, large-cap coins are relatively better, while many small-cap coins seem almost indistinguishable from gambling. I've noticed a phenomenon where many people experience: Altcoins keep rising when they don't buy, but immediately drop after they purchase. How can one avoid such situations? First, from an emotional perspective, buying "late" might lead to being trapped. For most people (mainly retail investors), they typically just browse news or updates and rarely invest time in in-depth learning or research. They only pay attention to coins when prices rise, often discovering them through push notifications. At this point, the risk is already relatively high because high prices might indicate early investors are selling out. If you choose to chase hot trends due to FOMO, you'll increase your chances of being trapped. Second, from a cycle perspective, buying "too early" can also lead to being trapped. If you're new to this field or currently have no positions, would you immediately buy Altcoins? Purchasing now, especially small-cap Altcoins, could likely result in portfolio losses in the coming months, as most Altcoins are still in a downtrend relative to Bitcoin and don't seem to meet the conditions for a new Altcoin season. Therefore, we need to combine cycle perspectives to avoid premature buying, which can be approached from several angles: For instance, from a macro cycle (bull-bear cycle) perspective, the best strategy is to buy projects with solid fundamentals and continuous ecosystem development during bear markets, then patiently wait to sell during bull markets. Given the current market trend, we haven't reached the theoretical bear market stage. If you want to operate based on macro cycles, you can continue waiting patiently until the next bear market arrives (assuming existing cycle patterns hold, possibly late 2026 or 2027). Consider also the micro-cycle (stage-based cycle) perspective. In the past year, we've actually experienced three mini Altcoin seasons. The first was in Q1 2024, the second in November 2024, and the third around May 2025. While we can't precisely predict the next opportunity, you can consider indicators like BTC.D and Altseason index. Of course, this is just theoretical discussion. We won't provide specific trading guidance or definitively state which Altcoin will rise. Our concrete advice remains: only buy projects you understand, control position allocation, avoid emotional trading in Altcoins, ensure timely profit-taking during bull markets, don't go too deep or take excessive risks, stay active but don't chase trends. If you're still uncertain, BTC remains your safest investment path. Many people's happiness is built on others' pain, and similarly, many people's gains are built on others' losses. When successful, avoid pride and complacency; when failing, seriously summarize experiences and lessons. In any field, some will be optimistic while others are pessimistic. If you continue to be bullish on the crypto domain, simply maintain attention and discover opportunities. Whether stocks or cryptocurrencies, any financially attributed field will have volatility opportunities, and where volatility exists, markets form, creating trading opportunities. Trading requires strategy, but strategies vary by individual. That's all for today.
