PANews reported on June 20 that QCP Capital, a cryptocurrency investment institution in Singapore, stated that the global market maintains a wait-and-see attitude, with investors assessing geopolitical risks and the potential for volatility to rebound. Gold surged and then fell after the Israeli attack on June 13, weakening safe-haven demand, while WTI crude oil prices remain steady at $75. The energy market continues to be affected by the Israel-Iran conflict, with market speculation rising about potential U.S. military intervention. The U.S. dollar weakened slightly as investors bet on an increased probability of direct regional conflict involvement within the next 48 hours, triggering moderate capital withdrawal from the dollar. In the cryptocurrency market, BTC continues to trade sideways. Despite increasing macroeconomic uncertainty and political noise from Trump's social media comments, price volatility remains low. Market sentiment is cautious, with holding data indicating that investors are waiting for more definitive catalysts.
The risk reversal indicators for BTC and ETH show that investors in June and September contracts are more inclined to hedge downside risks, indicating that bulls are actively protecting spot positions. Notably, the implied volatility of ETH's June at-the-money options has fallen below the September contract, reflecting a narrowing of short-term specific risk premiums, which may be related to reduced event-driven hedging or short-term volatility profit-taking. In contrast, BTC's near-month contracts maintain a slight volatility premium. Currently, the cryptocurrency market remains in a state of potential energy, with the next headline news, macroeconomic shift, or tail-end event potentially serving as a trigger for historically significant volatility.
