On Wednesday afternoon local time (June 18), the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting of "standing still", which fully met market expectations.
The Fed stated in its statement that while uncertainty about economic prospects has somewhat diminished, it remains at a high level. Meanwhile, the Fed lowered its 2025 US GDP growth forecast to 1.4% and raised its inflation expectation to 3%. This indicates that the Fed continues to face a dilemma between economic recovery and inflation control.
Rate cut expectations have also been adjusted: The Fed's "dot plot" shows that while two rate cuts (totaling 50 basis points) are still expected in 2025, consistent with March's projection, the rate cut expectation for 2026 has been reduced from two to one (only 25 basis points). More notably, among the 19 Fed officials, 7 believe there will be no rate cuts in 2025, demonstrating significant internal disagreement about the future policy path.
Crypto Market: Undercurrents Beneath a Calm Surface
Despite the Fed's decision having a massive impact on global financial markets, the cryptocurrency market's reaction seemed somewhat "zen". BTC remained stable around $104,000, ETH hovered around $2,520, while XRP and Solana remained largely unchanged.
According to CoinGlass data, while the total crypto market cap slightly dropped 2% to $3.35 trillion that day, a significant $224 million in leverage liquidations also occurred, with ETH having the largest liquidation volume, followed by BTC. This indicates intense bullish and bearish battles within the market.
Notably, the US spot BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of $216 million on June 17, while the spot ETH ETF saw an inflow of $11 million. This suggests that institutional funds continue to enter the crypto market, providing support at the bottom. Market experts believe this "calm" reaction reflects investors' cautious sentiment after the Fed's decision, with everyone waiting for clearer macroeconomic signals.
Trump Criticizes Powell Again: Political Factors Interfering with Market Judgment
Interestingly, on the day of the Fed meeting, Trump publicly attacked Fed Chairman Jerome Powell again, calling him "stupid" and predicting the Fed would not cut rates that day. Trump has long criticized Powell, accusing him of policies that "cost the country a lot of money". He believes Europe has cut rates 10 times while the US has not cut at all, and questions Powell's political stance. While these political remarks have drawn attention, they currently have not caused a direct massive impact on the crypto market, which seems more focused on economic data itself.
Global Tensions Intensify, Why is the Crypto Market Calm?
NoOnes CEO Ray Yossef pointed out that despite escalating tensions in the Middle East and macro environment turbulence over the past week, cryptocurrency prices have barely moved. He explained that BTC remains stable in a narrow range around $105,000, with a daily volatility below 2.1%, and no large-scale panic selling has occurred.
Ray Yossef also warned against overlooking escalating macro risks. He emphasized: "If geopolitical tensions intensify or begin to affect the financial system through sanctions, infrastructure disruption, or capital controls, the crypto market will not be spared." He noted that BTC's market dominance is approaching 66%, indicating that investors' risk appetite for Altcoins is declining in the current environment.
On-Chain Data Reveals: Bitcoin's Scarcity is Increasing
Beyond price and macroeconomic factors, on-chain data also provides an interesting perspective. According to data from DeFi solution provider Sentora (formerly IntoTheBlock), Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV Ratio) remains below historical market peaks. The MVRV Ratio measures the ratio of Bitcoin's total market cap to the total value of all Bitcoins at their last on-chain movement, reflecting whether network investors are overall profitable or at a loss.
Data shows that BTC's MVRV Ratio's extreme peaks have historically coincided with asset price tops, as when MVRV is high, average investors hold significant profits and are more inclined to take profits. Currently, BTC's MVRV Ratio is 2.25, meaning the market cap is more than twice the realized value, but significantly lower compared to past cyclical tops. This suggests the market is not as overheated as before, and BTC still has potential for growth.
Fidelity Digital Assets' June 18 research report noted that BTC's "Ancient Supply" growth rate is faster than new daily BTC issuance.
"Ancient Supply" refers to Bitcoins untouched for at least ten years. Since April 2024, an average of 566 BTC enter the "over ten years" unused category daily, exceeding miners' new 450 BTC circulation. This occurs less than a year after the 2024 block reward halving, which directly halves issuance and fundamentally changes BTC's supply dynamics.
The report provides extensive details about Bitcoin's supply dynamics, scarcity, and potential long-term value discovery, suggesting that Bitcoin's unique characteristics might reshape its value proposition over time.
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