Last week (June 11 - June 16), affected by geopolitical tensions, the market experienced severe fluctuations, with BTC showing resilience by quickly rebounding after a decline. On June 12-13, due to escalating Middle East tensions and Trump's uncertain tariff policies, market risk aversion increased, with BTC dropping to a low of $102,664.31, experiencing a maximum weekly decline of 7%. However, BTC quickly rebounded, returning to the $104,000 - $105,000 range. On the 16th, driven by favorable market news and continuous inflows into BTC spot ETF, BTC reached a high of $107,715, currently stabilizing around $106,615. ETH maintained a synchronized trend with BTC, with a maximum weekly volatility of 15.35%, currently priced at approximately $2,576 (Binance, June 17, 15:20).
Last week, with the Iran conflict escalation, the three major US stock indices all dropped over 1%. On Monday, the situation temporarily eased, with US stocks rebounding, and the Nasdaq rising 1.52%, with the S&P 500 returning above 6,000 points.
Market Interpretation
US May CPI Declines, Rate Cut Expectations Increase
The US May CPI was lower than market expectations, with the core inflation indicator slowing for four consecutive months. CPI year-on-year increased by 2.4%, with core CPI monthly rate at only 0.1%, both below expectations, indicating weakening inflation stickiness. After the data release, S&P 500 index futures turned positive, with 10-year US Treasury yield falling to 4.1%, and market probability of Fed September rate cut raised to 85%. Although core CPI year-on-year remains above the 2% target, short-term food price declines and tariff impacts have not yet emerged, leaving room for Fed's loose policy. Subsequent decisions may rely more on core PCE data. Trump publicly called for rate cuts, further strengthening market loose expectations. Overall, macroeconomic signals are relatively optimistic, with short-term risk appetite recovering.
Middle East Tensions Escalate, Global Risk Aversion Rises, Crypto Market Faces Short-term Pressure
In mid-June, intelligence warfare between Israel and Iran escalated with large-scale air strikes, dramatically increasing geopolitical risks. Gold broke through $3,400, oil rose to around $90, and global stock markets were generally under pressure. The crypto market simultaneously declined, with BTC falling to around $103,000 on June 13, a 24-hour drop of 3.5%; ETH dropped over 8%, SOL fell nearly 9.5%, and CD 20 index dropped 6.1%. The main reasons were safe-haven funds flowing to gold and US dollars, declining local Iranian demand, and high-volatility assets being sold. However, on Monday, the market largely digested the geopolitical conflict impact, with BTC and ETH showing strong elasticity and quick rebounds. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.94% and 1.5% respectively, with gold falling 1.5%. Market focus is gradually shifting to the FOMC meeting and crypto market institutional progress.
GENIUS Bill Advances, Stablecoin Regulation Enters New Stage
Last week, the US Senate supported the GENIUS Stablecoin Bill entering full chamber debate with a 68:30 vote, marking substantial progress in stablecoin regulation. The bill establishes a compliance framework and clarifies the legal status for USD-pegged payment stablecoins, receiving broad bipartisan support. Supporters believe the framework will enhance transparency and promote stablecoin payment applications, while opponents worry high thresholds might restrict innovation and squeeze small issuers. If successfully passed, mainstream stablecoins like USDC and USDT are expected to benefit directly, potentially further consolidating market landscape, with legislative progress also influencing global digital asset regulatory direction.
US Senate Advances GENIUS Bill, Stablecoin Regulation Reaches Milestone
Last week, the US Senate supported the GENIUS Stablecoin Bill entering full chamber debate with a 68:30 vote, marking substantial progress in stablecoin regulation. The bill establishes a compliance framework for USD-pegged payment stablecoins and clarifies their legal status, achieving rare bipartisan consensus. Supporters believe the GENIUS framework will enhance market transparency and promote stablecoin payment applications. Opponents worry high thresholds might limit innovation and squeeze small issuers. If successfully passed, mainstream stablecoins like USDC and USDT will directly benefit, potentially accelerating market consolidation. Legislative progress will also influence global digital asset regulatory paths.
Market Highlights
Preliminary Sino-US Trade Agreement Reached, Rare Earth and Tariffs Become Negotiation Focus
Last week, China and the US reached a preliminary trade agreement, with China promising to pre-supply rare earth materials to the US to alleviate industrial supply chain pressure, in exchange for US export tariffs set at 55% (China at 10%). Although tariffs are lower than previously expected, they remain above historical averages, bringing pressure to both economies. Overall, the temporary easing has not changed the high-risk confrontation and uncertainty main theme.
JPMorgan Chase Layouts Crypto Payment, "JPMD" Trademark Sparks Stablecoin Innovation Expectations
JPMorgan Chase recently applied for the "JPMD" trademark in the US, covering multiple crypto services including digital asset trading, payment, and clearing, potentially paving the way for its own stablecoin and blockchain financial applications. Previous reports suggested that JPMorgan Chase and other major banks are studying joint USD stablecoin launch to accelerate cross-border and daily payment efficiency. Currently, JPM Coin has processed over $1.5 trillion in inter-bank blockchain payments.
Trump Media Approved for $23 Billion BTC Reserve, Personal Crypto Income Reaches $57.35 Million
Trump Media and Technology Group (DJT) was approved by SEC for $23 billion in financing this week, planning to allocate most funds to BTC, aiming to become the world's third-largest enterprise-level BTC holder. Simultaneously disclosed, Trump earned $57.35 million through family crypto platform in 2024, exceeding traditional business income. The company positions BTC as a "core financial asset", strengthening asset structure. Despite actively advancing crypto strategy, DJT's stock price has dropped 42% year-to-date, with revenue far below losses, raising market doubts about its profitability model and valuation. Industry analysts note accelerating trend of listed companies configuring BTC, with related fluctuations and risks warranting continuous attention.
Circle Goes Public, Surging Nearly 390% in Ten Days, Stablecoin Leader Drives Industry Mainstreaming
Global leading stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) listed on NYSE on June 5, becoming the first stablecoin company to successfully IPO. On its first trading day, Circle's stock price rose 168%, closing with a market value exceeding $21 billion. As of now, Circle's stock price has cumulatively risen nearly 390% in ten days, with the latest market value approaching $36.7 billion. As the "first stablecoin stock", Circle has pioneered compliant listing, becoming a symbolic event of industry legalization and capitalization.
