Author: NingNing
As we approach the end of June, the cryptocurrency market situation for 2025 is already quite clear!
There are two main trading logic lines running through this year's crypto market:
1. One clear line is the debate between US President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on whether to cut interest rates this year.
Although most macro analysts refuse to introduce political dimensions to analyze the interest rate debate between Trump and Powell, those who understand know. Whether to cut rates or not has little direct relation to US inflation data and non-farm employment; it is actually a major leverage point for political wrestling between the Democratic and Republican parties.
Observing current FedWatch interest rate expectations, Polymarket prediction markets, and Twitter public opinion, it can be found that Powell firmly controls the financial market discourse, while Trump can only rely on various tariff wars and social media attacks to gain some financial market influence.
Therefore, in the future two major game equilibrium points - Powell's departure in May 2026 and before the US midterm elections, the entire market is in an uncertain state brought by the confrontational game of Powell tightening market liquidity and Trump stirring up trouble everywhere.
2. A hidden line is cryptocurrency integrating into the traditional financial system and participating in reshaping the US dollar financial system.
Whether planning to increase US Bitcoin strategic reserves under the principle of fiscal neutrality, or the US debt conversion plan aiming to expand stablecoin scale to over $2 trillion in several years, including upcoming market structure bills clarifying whether SEC or CFTC will regulate the crypto market, and whether PerpDEX representatives like Hyperliquid can operate on US soil, Trump's regulatory actions and Vance's public speeches all subtly indicate that the Trump administration views cryptocurrency as an organic part of reshaping the 21st-century US dollar financial system.
Therefore, 2025 is destined to be a year of uncertainty. Our retail investors' investments and trades this year are like a small boat sailing into raging waves and storms. Making money through investment and trading this year is of epic difficulty.
But 2025 is not a year to lie flat; finding certainty within uncertainty is the wise path.
I am optimistic about two definite layout opportunities facing 2026:
US Debt Conversion - Stablecoin - PayFi - RWA
CFTC Regulating Crypto Market - PerpDEX - Hyperliquid / Consumer Chain - Abstract
Anyway, our mission in 2025 is to not leave the table while secretly preparing our cards for 2026.
