In the current global economic landscape, the hegemonic status of the US dollar has always been an important topic in the international financial arena. With the rapid development of financial technology, the emergence of stablecoins as a new concept has added new variables to this issue. Can stablecoins strengthen the US dollar's hegemonic position?
The answer to this question is not absolute, but rather complex and uncertain, requiring in-depth exploration from multiple perspectives. From a technical and market mechanism perspective, stablecoins, as a digital currency, derive their core value from anchoring an asset or currency to achieve value stability. Fiat-backed stablecoins' development potential largely depends on the status of the underlying fiat currency. If the fiat currency itself is unstable, launching a stablecoin will not fundamentally change its weak position in the international monetary system.
As Dr. Zheng Lei pointed out, "Can a weak fiat currency turn the tables by rushing to create a stablecoin? That's a daydream." Stablecoins cannot exist independently from their underlying currency's real situation, and their success is closely related to the fiat currency's reputation, stability, and international recognition. From an international competition perspective, the US dollar, as the global dominant currency, has formed its hegemonic status through the long-term interaction of multiple factors, including the United States' strong economic power, the depth and breadth of its financial markets, and the widespread use of the US dollar in international trade and financial transactions.
The emergence of stablecoins, whether US dollar stablecoins or stablecoins of other currencies, may impact the existing international monetary landscape. However, whether this impact will strengthen or weaken the US dollar's hegemony depends on the interaction of multiple factors. On one hand, if US dollar stablecoins gain widespread acceptance and use globally, they might further consolidate the dollar's hegemonic position by expanding its usage range and influence, enhancing its dominance in the international financial system. On the other hand, if other countries or regions can launch competitive stablecoins that gain a foothold in the international market, they might challenge the US dollar's hegemony and weaken its monopolistic status.
Looking at China's situation, its development in the digital currency field has attracted significant attention. China's choice to develop digital renminbi, rather than simply launching a stablecoin, reflects its considerations of monetary system and financial stability. The promotion of digital renminbi aims to enhance the renminbi's internationalization level and increase its frequency and convenience in international payments and settlements. Meanwhile, some Chinese financial technology companies, such as JD.com and Ant Group, are exploring the feasibility of offshore renminbi stablecoins.
However, the scale of offshore renminbi is relatively small, and compared to US dollar stablecoins, its influence and market capacity differ significantly. Therefore, while offshore renminbi stablecoins have potential, they are unlikely to pose a substantial threat to US dollar hegemony in the short term. In the long run, with China's continuous economic growth and renminbi internationalization, the development of offshore renminbi stablecoins might lay the groundwork for gaining more discourse power in the global financial system.
The relationship between stablecoins and US dollar hegemony is not a simple linear causal relationship but is influenced by multiple factors. The emergence of stablecoins brings new opportunities and challenges to the international monetary system, but whether they can strengthen the US dollar's hegemonic position still needs to be observed and verified in practice. For various countries, finding a suitable path in stablecoin development and enhancing their national currency's international competitiveness will be an important topic in the future financial field.
