The positive US CPI cannot hide the whale' shipments? Bitcoin fell back under pressure after rising
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The U.S. inflation data for May showed signs of being milder than expected, bringing a positive signal to risk assets. Specifically, the year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) without seasonal adjustment was 2.4%, lower than the market's general expectation of 2.5%; the month-on-month rate was also only 0.1%, similarly lower than the expected 0.2%.
Core inflation data (excluding volatile food and energy prices) also showed a similar slowdown trend: the year-on-year rate was 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9%; while the seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate was only 0.1%, significantly lower than the market's expectation of 0.3%.
After the report was released, the crypto market showed a rise and then a decline trend. Bitcoin briefly approached $110,000 during the day, Ethereum (ETH) rose 3% to $2,834, and XRP rose 1.8% to $2.32. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies remained around $3.4 trillion in the past 24 hours. According to CoinGlass data, the 24-hour liquidation amount across the network reached $300 million, with Ethereum liquidations around $100 million and Bitcoin clearance around $37 million.
Whale Movement
While BTC rose and then fell, on-chain data also observed increased whale activity. The on-chain tracking platform Whale Alert discovered on June 11 that a large amount of Bitcoin was flowing into the U.S. crypto exchange Coinbase. According to data from the tracking platform, in just about two hours, multiple anonymous whales transferred over 3,165 Bitcoins (worth over $347 million) to Coinbase through several transactions.
The largest transaction involved 738 BTC, with other transactions also being large transfers from anonymous wallets (such as 466 BTC, 464 BTC, 463 BTC, etc.).
Notably, 510 BTC (worth about $56.1 million) was transferred from the well-known crypto trading company Cumberland to Coinbase Institutional, which typically indicates that whales may be trying to sell their tokens. Although the specific reasons for these transfers have not been confirmed, it could also be an attempt by whales to rebalance their portfolios. However, considering the large volume, high repetition, and involvement of companies like Cumberland, this is likely an action by large participants, especially institutions.
Possibly influenced by this whale activity, Bitcoin broke below the $110,000 mark from the day's opening and stabilized around $108,677 at the time of writing.
Trend and Technical Analysis
Data shows that the current Bitcoin futures market's funding rate is very stable or slightly low. The author believes this typically indicates that the current rebound is driven by investors actually purchasing spot assets, rather than being pushed by high-leverage futures trading. With high-leverage positions not being mainstream in the market, the risk of triggering large-scale selling and sharp declines is low, thus the possibility of continued price increases is higher.
From the technical chart, Bitcoin opened with a gap up of about 1% yesterday, trading around 110,375 points. After opening, BTC oscillated around this price for about 180 minutes, then began to slowly decline, touching the intraday low of 108,720 points around 11:33. Around 2:02 PM, BTC quickly surged, ultimately closing around 110,455 points. That day, it formed a Yang cross star K-line with a relatively long lower shadow, rising about 1.02%.
By monitoring the daily trading channel model, Bitcoin is currently running above the red and green protection channel, indicating that the medium-term trend remains strong. Sentiment indicators have also slowly rebounded with the price increase, showing that market confidence is recovering.
From the 1-hour cycle K-line chart, the trading model shows that the short-term price is running above the white multi-short line, with sentiment indicators at a high level, about to form a top divergence pattern. This means that the probability of market volatility increasing in the short term is high, and there might be a pullback to the 108,720 point (intraday low), and it's crucial to observe whether this low point will be broken.
The author believes that through 1-hour K-line data analysis, multiple indicators are in the high zone, increasing the probability of intraday oscillation, with a key focus on observing whether the 108,720 point low will be broken. Through daily K-line data analysis, BTC is running in the red and green protection channel, and medium-term long positions can be continued to hold.
Warm Reminder: All analyses and views contained in this article belong to the author's understanding of the market and do not constitute any form of buying or selling advice. The market is risky, and investment requires caution. All readers must make independent investment decisions based on their own circumstances and bear the corresponding risks.
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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