The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will hold a monetary policy meeting next week, with Governor Kazuo Ueda hinting at a postponement of interest rate hikes, and internal sources suggesting a halt to QT. In response, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes pointed out that if the Bank of Japan decides to restart quantitative easing (QE), it could potentially drive a surge in risk assets like BTC.
Table of Contents
ToggleBank of Japan May Halt QT, Ueda Hints at Postponing Rate Hike
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the original structure and translating all text while preserving HTML tags]A new chapter in crypto ETFs is opening, with Solana potentially becoming the first blockchain after Ethereum to pass a spot ETF. Multiple Bloomberg analysts indicate that this summer might witness a new "Altcoin ETF boom", though the attitude of funds will be more cautious and rational, and whether it can truly attract hot money remains uncertain.
ToggleFrom BTC to Solana: Spot ETF Accelerating Unlocking New Targets
Following the successive approval of BTC and ETH spot ETFs, the SEC is now facing a new round of spot crypto ETF application reviews, including Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), Litecoin (LTC), Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT) and other Altcoins.
According to Bloomberg Intelligence tracking, almost all 19b-4 form applications have been confirmed by the SEC and set a final review deadline, with the outcomes potentially being revealed as early as the second half of 2025.
Among these, Solana leads with a 90% high probability of approval, with applications submitted by up to seven institutions including Grayscale, VanEck, and 21Shares, demonstrating its market attractiveness and quasi-institutional positioning. Bloomberg ETF senior analyst Eric Balchunas even pointed out:
Get ready for the potential "Altcoin ETF Summer"! Solana and some basket crypto asset products are likely to lead the way.
Not All Cryptocurrencies Are Viable: SEC Attitude and CFTC Regulation as Key Determinants
Bloomberg data indicates that "whether it is viewed as a Commodity by the SEC" is the core determinant of ETF success. BTC and ETH passed relatively smoothly due to their futures markets being regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Solana, XRP, and LTC may also be viewed as "commodities", increasing their chances of approval.
(Solana ETF Likely to be Approved by SEC within Five Weeks? SOL Rises 5% After Positive News)
In contrast, while SUI and TRON have applied, they lack CFTC-regulated futures products, and the SEC's view of them as commodities remains uncertain. Their approval probabilities are estimated at 60% and lower, with review deadlines potentially extending to 2026.
Will Hot Money Return? Solana ETF's Funding Challenge
However, Balchunas candidly responded to community questions: "A high approval probability doesn't necessarily mean massive fund inflows"
Nothing compares to Bitcoin, our team has a saying: "The further from Bitcoin, the sparser the asset inflows."
In fact, even months after the ETH spot ETF approval, net fund inflows remain below expectations, reflecting market reservations about non-Bitcoin asset ETFs. Despite Solana's topical nature and high performance, the ETF's ability to drive substantial fund movement remains to be seen without institutional consensus and macro positive factors.
The Real Significance and Potential of Altcoin ETF Approval
Although short-term fund explosion is not guaranteed, the true significance of these Altcoin spot ETFs might lie in changing long-term asset allocation structures. If Solana successfully lists an ETF, it not only symbolizes official endorsement of its commodity attributes but also provides potential reasons for institutional funds (like retirement or sovereign funds) to include it in their portfolios.
Additionally, ETF structures including Staking products might emerge. Currently, the SEC is observing some institutions' attempts to launch ETFs with staking functionality, which would further expand the financial application depth of Altcoins if implemented.
(Crypto ETF Progress Seeing Dawn? BlackRock Meets with SEC Team, Submits Amended IBIT, ETHA)
Solana Leading, Altcoin ETF Testing the Waters
From this wave of applications, the US crypto ETF market is gradually moving from single assets to diverse indices and alternative assets. Solana is not only leading in spot ETF approvals but also injecting policy and regulatory expectations into the overall Altcoin market.
However, ETF approval does not equal a bull market's return. The real key in the future still depends on whether the market is willing to buy in, whether it has macro momentum, and whether regulators will open up breakthrough innovations like staking.
The "Altcoin ETF Summer" might not create a milestone topic like Bitcoin, but it might be enough to bring some anticipation to the low-heat market.
Risk Warning
Cryptocurrency investment carries high risks, and prices may fluctuate dramatically. You may lose all your principal. Please carefully assess the risks.
