The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in June continues to remain very high.
According to the latest update from CME Group's "Fed Watch" tool, the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining interest rates in the June meeting currently reaches a very high level, up to 97.5%. This indicates that most investors and analysts believe that the Fed will not adjust monetary policy in the short term. Conversely, the probability of the Fed implementing a 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cut in June is only 2.5%, reflecting very low market expectations for an early easing move.
Looking ahead to July, market expectations begin to show a clearer differentiation. The probability of the Fed continuing to maintain current interest rates drops to 67.3%. Meanwhile, the possibility of the Fed implementing a 25 basis point rate cut in July has increased to 32.0%, indicating that downward pressure on interest rates is gradually growing if economic data in the coming period shows a weakening trend. However, the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates by a total of 50 basis points in July remains very low, at only 0.8%, suggesting that the market does not have high expectations for aggressive easing moves in the short term.
These forecasts continue to reflect the cautious sentiment of the global financial market towards the Fed's monetary policy, in a context where inflation in the US has not yet reached the 2% target and economic data remains volatile.
