- Bitcoin's $100,000 threshold is under strong pressure as the market fluctuates between liquidation restructuring and increasing fear sentiment.
- Nearly $1 billion was "blown away" from leverage positions in just one day.
Macro and political pressures push Bitcoin into a dangerous zone
Macro factors have been pressing cryptocurrency prices, but current political instability is turning that pressure into a real "tightening".
The $100,000 value of Bitcoin [BTC] seems to be "hanging by a thread". Just one more shock could break the market.
The market is now strongly divided: some view the recent liquidation as a "strategic liquidation move" for large capital to re-accumulate.
But others see the sharply increased fear sentiment as a sign that market confidence is truly broken.
In summary, the current market structure is extremely fragile. We are moving on a thin line between confidence and surrender. Another "price squeeze" could determine Bitcoin's next direction.
Political turbulence, market bloodshed
The consequence of the confrontation between Trump and Musk heavily impacts leveraged investors. In just 24 hours, the liquidation amount reached $981.34 million, one of the largest "evaporations" recently. Detailed reference.
Notably, nearly 90% of liquidated positions were Longing positions. When the market reversed, automatic liquidation and manual exit orders caused around $880 million to "evaporate" from optimistic investors' pockets.
Consequence: Bitcoin's price dropped 3%, the deepest decline in two weeks, touching a low of $100,421 – the lowest price in nearly a month. But that's just a crack on the surface.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Internally, market sentiment is rapidly deteriorating.
The Crypto Fear & Greed index dropped sharply from 55 to 46, approaching the "fear" zone. Market capitalization also reflects this: Bitcoin ETF recorded a net capital outflow of $278.4 million, with 2,881 BTC flowing strongly to the top 10 exchanges.
However, futures contract traders have not yet retreated. Bitcoin's Open Interest (OI) remains stable above $70 billion, even increasing by 1.05% at the time of update.
The absence of widespread leverage reduction suggests that risk appetite – at least in the derivatives sector – still exists.
But in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market, this is a double-edged sword.
$100,000 Threshold: Bitcoin's big gamble
From the bullish perspective, many traders believe this political instability is a "strategic move" – even considered a "macro manipulation" aimed at promoting loosening measures and interest rate cuts.
In that scenario, the recent intense liquidation represents a purposeful "liquidity reset" rather than panic.
Evidence is that, despite the sharp drop, the spot market has not recorded large-scale dumping.
In fact, Bitcoin has recovered nearly 50% of the decline, returning to $103,000 at the current moment, increasing by 1.5%. This shows that "dip-buying" force is still active.
Nevertheless, cautious sentiment still prevails. The US economy is weakening, plus Musk's opposition to the debt bill, is opening up the risk of capital flowing to safe-haven channels like bonds.
Source: Trading Economics
If bond yields continue to fall, the large liquidity stuck in Bitcoin derivatives could become a speculative "bubble" ready to burst at any moment.
At that time, small retail investors might quickly avoid risks, pushing selling pressure high, and Bitcoin could completely break through the $100,000 mark.
Therefore, although Bitcoin temporarily "escapes danger", the battle between confidence and surrender is far from settled.
