In early June, the crypto market faced a delicate situation with policy tailwinds and tight funding, and despite continued cooling of core inflation and enhanced rate cut expectations, high-beta assets still face short-term pressure. In this column, HTX Research Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) focuses on macro liquidity and market structural changes, analyzing the supporting factors behind BTC's resilience and potential systemic risks of Altcoins.
Geopolitical Risks Escalate: Gold and Oil Rise in Tandem
Last week, Trump announced raising steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% and plans to further extend tariffs to critical mineral resources. The EU strongly responded, indicating it would take reciprocal retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, Ukraine launched a massive drone attack on Russian air bases, escalating the Russia-Ukraine conflict and raising geopolitical risks. In this context, market risk aversion significantly increased, gold prices rose, and despite OPEC+ announcing a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels starting July, oil prices also rose due to supply concerns and geopolitical tensions.
Core Inflation Cools, Fed's Dovish Space Expands
April PCE data performed steadily, with core PCE year-on-year declining to 2.5%, a new low since 2021, indicating inflation is gradually approaching the Fed's long-term target. Additionally, US real personal consumption expenditure monthly rate fell from 0.7% to 0.1%, showing clear signs of cooling domestic demand, consistent with "soft landing" expectations. Fed Governor Waller noted that even if tariff policies might bring short-term inflation pressure, rate cuts remain possible this year. The market's mainstream expectation is that September will be the first rate cut window.
Bond Market Sends Warning: Yields Rise to Critical Levels
Despite dovish inflation data, US Treasury yields rose against the trend, with 30-year yields rising to 5%, close to 2023 highs, and 10-year yields approaching 4.6%. Driving factors include fiscal deficit concerns from congressional tax reduction bills and overseas bond market (especially Japanese government bonds) selling pressure transmitting to the US market. The bond market's strong capital absorption effect suppresses risk assets, constraining the performance space of high-beta assets like BTC.
Mainstream Currencies Stable, Altcoins Avoid
For BTC, it currently is in a "policy-friendly, funding-tight" delicate stage. On one hand, policy tailwinds continue: stablecoin regulation, Token legislation, and tax exemptions are progressing smoothly, and institutional continuous BTC purchases form long-term support; on the other hand, high US Treasury yields and TGA account replenishment pressure liquidity, making it difficult for BTC to break through strongly in the short term, with oscillation more likely.
On-chain data shows that about 89% of short-term BTC holders are still in profit, approaching historical high ranges, indicating potential profit-taking pressure is accumulating; about 70% of long-term holders remain profitable, with a relatively stable structure. Meanwhile, MVRV Z-Score rose to around +1.6, showing market sentiment is optimistic but not overheated. In the derivatives market, Open Interest remains above $23 billion, with leveraged funds continuously flowing in, funding rates remain positive, and option Skew indicators reflect market hedging intentions for downside risks. Overall, while BTC has not departed from its medium-term bullish structure, short-term fund accumulation and high leverage will increase volatility, and future trends await clearer macro signals. For Altcoins, due to high volatility and lack of structural support, their systemic pullback risk may be stronger than mainstream cryptocurrencies.
Note: This content is not investment advice and does not constitute any investment product offer, solicitation, or recommendation.
About HTX DeepThink
HTX DeepThink is a crypto market insight column created by HTX, focusing on global macro trends, core economic data, and crypto industry hotspots, injecting new thinking power into the market, helping readers "find order in chaos" in the ever-changing crypto world.
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research department of HTX Group, responsible for in-depth analysis of cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to providing data-based insights and strategic foresight, playing a crucial role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting wise decisions in the digital asset field. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research always stands at the forefront of innovation, leading industry thought development and promoting deep understanding of constantly changing market dynamics.
