Chainfeeds Briefing:
Although Bitcoin has surged significantly, the true bull market that would trigger a comprehensive crypto market frenzy has not yet begun; only when economic pressure forces policymakers to release massive liquidity will the next genuine bull market arrive.
Article Source:
https://x.com/crypthoem/status/1930316443368710379
Article Author:
hoeem
Perspective:
hoeem: Although Bitcoin has risen from $16,000 to over $110,000 in the past three years, seemingly indicating a bull market, from a macic perspective, the formed, the conditions for triggtriggering a frenzied market have not yet formed. The starting points of past crypto bull markets (2013, 2017, 2021) occurred after massive liquidity release, not merely driven by halving or narrative. The author notes that the current rise is more of an institutional-driven orderly market, not an emotional frenzy with widespread participation. Against the backdrop of lacking a liquidity peak, despite Bitcoin's new higaltcoin market remains weak, with of small coins even trapped in a mini bear market. This price increase does not represent the peak of a bull market, but is more likely just the first act. Borrowing research from YouTuber Jesse Eckel, the author lists 11 macro liquidity levers that previously triggered crypto bull markets, including interest rate cuts, quantitative easing (QE), forward guidance (i.e., promises to pause rate hikes), reducing bank reserve ratios, relaxing capital rules, loan deferral policies, bank bailouts and guarantees, massive fiscal spending, using the Treasury General Account (TGA), QE spillover effects from foreign central banks, and emergency credit credit facilities. These mechanisms are not isolated triggers, generate but produce a multiplmultiplier effect when combined, thereby sparking speculative market rises. Before each bull market, these tools were extensively used, such as after the 2008 financial crisis and during the the 2020 pandemic. In the current macroeconomic environment, although some data show recession signals, such as like manufacturing employment surveys significantly deterior, liquidity lelevers have been activated., prices have risen, but have not yet the yet the broad, comprehensive explosive characteristics of past bull markets. The article emphasizes that the fundamental driver of liquidity release at the macro dimension is "economic pain". Whether financial crises, systemic unemployment, or large--contractions, only under severe economic downward pressure will policymakers decisively launch comprehensive stimulus measures,ering ofidity. Currently, while the global economy faces pressure, faces it has not yet reached the point of forcing a major policy shift.. Using M2 monetary supply growth growth rate and ISM and ISM manufacturing PMI index as representative indicators, the author points out that the current M2 year-on growth rate, remains at a low level, and the PMI has not significantly recovered, far from the of past bull markets. bull markets. In short, the current market may continue to rise moderately, but without a strong stimulus of liquidity flooding, the entire lacks the soil for for a comprehensive market market frenzy. The true bull market will arrive only when macro policies are comprehensively relaxed and liquidity floods in, moment which has not yet occurred not.
Content Source
