US stock market rally in May without a hitch… June is tense due to the variable of ‘Trump tariffs’

Over the past month, the US stock market has been on a continuous rally. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices recorded their largest monthly gain since November 2023, driven by easing US-China trade tensions, strong quarterly results, and robust economic indicators. However, the mood may change in June. With the anticipated relaunch of 'Trump-style protectionist' trade policies, market focus is concentrated on the White House, Congress, and several key stocks. One of the most notable events is the tariff implementation on 'Liberation Day' announced by President Trump. If this tariff measure, scheduled to resume on July 9th, becomes a reality, major tech and consumer goods companies will be directly impacted. The Republican Party is fine-tuning the details of the 'One Big, Beautiful Bill', and the market may fluctuate significantly depending on the negotiation results in the coming weeks. Despite these political risks, some stocks are looking for opportunities. Apple (AAPL) is expected to allow third-party developers access to its AI platform 'Apple Intelligence' at its annual developer conference (WWDC) on June 9th. While last year disappointed with slow AI technology adoption, this open policy could be a critical turning point for expanding the Apple ecosystem. However, the stock has already dropped about 20% this year due to Trump's tariff pressure on China. Tesla (TSLA) has announced the launch of its 'Robotaxi' autonomous taxi service in Austin, Texas, on June 12th. This will be the first comprehensive public test of autonomous driving software's practical performance. With CEO Elon Musk taking a step back from government efficiency department controversies, the stock has shown a rebound trend. It has recovered about 60% from its yearly low but remains down approximately 14% year-to-date. Nike (NKE) is set to release its earnings report on June 26th. This report is expected to be the first opportunity to gauge the impact of Trump's tariff measures on corporate performance. In March, Nike warned that tariffs on products from China and Mexico could reduce profitability by 4-5 percentage points. However, with tariff rates being higher than expected, performance deterioration seems inevitable. The stock has adjusted nearly 20% year-to-date. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) faced continuous challenges throughout May, including CEO resignation, withdrawal of performance guidance, federal government Medicare fraud investigation, and allegations of secret nursing home subsidies. Eventually, former CEO Steven Hemsley, who led the company in the mid-2000s, returned to manage the situation. The stock dropped over 25% last month and has fallen a staggering 40% year-to-date. Nevertheless, 13 out of 16 major analysts still recommend buying, with an average target price of about $415, suggesting nearly 40% upside potential. The solar industry is also closely watching political movements. The recently passed House budget bill directly contradicts the Biden administration's green subsidy policies. Jefferies described this bill as the 'worst-case scenario' for the solar industry. If the bill passes the Senate, companies like Enphase Energy (ENPH), Sunrun (RUN), and First Solar (FSLR) could face additional downside risks. These stocks dropped 20%, 37%, and 4% respectively the day after the House vote. Specifically, Enphase Energy is down 40%, Sunrun 19%, and First Solar 10% this year. June is expected to be a complex period testing trade policy direction, AI technology adoption, and industry-specific resilience. While the stock market may be swayed by short-term tariff variables, each company's structural competitiveness and market acceptance rate will be the key inflection point determining medium to long-term investment directions.