Last night, the latest inflation data PCE arrived! Will this be due to Trump's tariffs causing high inflation? Let's look at the data: This PCE result is below expectations! It's favorable. The core PCE result meets expectations! Note: Inflation results below expectations are favorable, while above are unfavorable. If it matches expectations, the impact is relatively small.
The core of the current market is: Altcoins remain a tool for cutting leeks, being hyped up and then abandoned, with liquidity falling off a cliff, and even being delisted. The market makers follow the old routine of "listing - pulling up - dumping - listing new coins". Meanwhile, BTC and mainstream cryptocurrencies are rising slowly, while altcoins die quickly. Once BTC becomes slightly stronger, it absorbs market funds, leaving altcoins with no vitality. The market is a typical trend-driven and sentiment-resonant scenario, where missing the rhythm means almost no chance of breaking even.
Don't expect the bull market to benefit everyone equally. This round is an institutional-led structural bull market, with only specific themes (such as AI, RWA, Sol ecosystem) experiencing fund rotation. Obscure altcoins are not even considered.
Insights from recent major news:
- News from BlackRock, Trump, Musk, etc., indicates that the "main line is Bitcoin and Ethereum", not MEME or your "old altcoins";
- SharpLink directly increases ETH holdings, seeing long-term potential;
- Jupiter, LABUBU show that the Solana ecosystem still has local explosive potential.
James's contract long position finally completely liquidated. When Bitcoin dropped below $105,000 this morning, he lost nearly $100 million, with cumulative losses this week exceeding $100 million. He not only lost the previous $80 million but also went $20 million into principal loss. His latest liquidation resulted in a loss of about $36 million. With his high-leverage, risk-unmanaged approach, even with remaining funds, reaching zero is just a matter of time.
Within a week, James transformed from "Contract God" to "Typical Gambling Dog", truly demonstrating the risks of the contract market. Although there are rumors of hedging positions, he has not personally confirmed this. In reality, most retail investors operate with naked long positions, completely unaware of hedging or risk control. This liquidation should serve as a warning, especially for those who have accumulated some wealth. Do not be obsessed with "all-in", and remember that the ultimate goal of crypto trading is asset holding, not using USDT to fail to acquire a complete BTC. On the macro front, Trump has stirred up another wave, not only appealing to the International Trade Court's decision but also proposing a "Plan B". Additionally, Trump met with Powell but failed to push the Federal Reserve to cut rates early. CME still expects the first cut in September, with two cuts for the year.
On the market front, Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $350 million last night, ending a 9-day streak of inflows, but BlackRock still had a net inflow of $125 million, which is some consolation. On the ETH side, it continues to be strong, with ETF seeing another inflow of nearly $100 million last night, a recent high, supporting ETH/BTC's strength.
Altcoins are generally weak. The SOL version of "MicroStrategy" adding positions could not reverse the trend. Only a few coins like $lpt, $pokt (on Upbit), and meme coins $trb, $wct, $abcn showed performance. The current bull market is mainly driven by institutions, and altcoins struggle to keep up due to poor liquidity. Except for a few ETF concepts, AI, RWA, and public chain leaders, other second-tier altcoins have slim chances. Each rebound might be the peak, so reallocation should be decisive.
That's it for the article! If you're feeling lost in the crypto world, consider joining me in layout and harvesting from market makers! You can join the community (WeChat + QQ group: 3806326575) for market analysis, individual coin recommendations, and favorable news. Get ahead of the game with occasional live market analysis! You can also ask questions in the group and receive the best answers!
